4 year stay-away college will be increasingly seen as the province of the well-to-do and top academic kids who can pick up substantial merit scholarships or get in to schools with generous fin aid.
Stigma of online and distance degrees will drop as more and more reputable schools enter that realm and for many folks, that may be the only affordable way to gain a degree.
Only lab sciences can’t really be taught online or by distance.
If you think about it, the traditional American “college experience” was really a bundle: Admissions screening for signaling, the degree that confers legitimacy and an alumni base, all the non-educational stuff outside the classroom that constituted the “college experience”, and the actual education itself, which includes the classroom part and support/extras like research opportunities, the library, writing centers, etc.
Bundles don’t have to stay bundled and unbundling will occur. You already have course credit and even degrees by testing (that’s essentially what the University of London International degrees are and they come in at below $10K for a bachelor’s). So much knowledge being online makes libraries redundant. And I think you’ll see more providers come in to fill gaps. MIT already offers a (grad) degree that is partially online. Anyone can take the first half of the curriculum online for a really cheap price. Then the best students are allowed to come to MIT to finish their degree. I think you’ll see more of that.
The fitness component is affecting the enlisted ranks as well. It’s getting harder and harder for the military branches to find candidates who can pass the physical requirements, and the Army has upped that game recently:
On the SA forums, kids are more concerned about passing the CFA than increasing their GPAs and standardized test scores. Candidates also have to pass the DoDMERB (medical) bar so not just fit but completely healthy. So, there may be a smaller population of qualified applicants, but still more than available slots. I’m just wondering if, among those who could qualify, if an academy or ROTC option will be added to more students’ mix going forward based on the astronomical costs and potential debt burden of a college education in the U.S.
Parents*: Would you approve of this option for your child? Note that any money you have in a 529 that you would not be spending on another child can go back into your bank account or retirement funds penalty-free, minus taxes on the gains, due to the Military Family Tax Relief Act.
Students*: How about you? Would you consider five or more years of service if it meant little to no college debt and a guaranteed job upon graduation (service academies guarantee a job, ROTC doesn’t but can pay the bulk of a civilian college education)?
*Of course, there is that pesky potential for making the ultimate sacrifice that cannot be understated (in this mom’s mind, anyway).
I don’t mean to derail this thread but because service is one way to defray the cost of college, I think it’s relevant to this discussion.
My d has seriously considered the medical scholarship program to pay for medical school. I think she will want to serve in some way, if not in the military, then with doctors without borders. Personally, I’m sad that she will be 2.5 hours away for college, it would be really hard for me to see her go into the military! But, I would absolutely support her choice and be very proud of her.
@ChoatieMom: “I’m just wondering if, among those who could qualify, if an academy or ROTC option will be added to more students’ mix going forward based on the astronomical costs and potential debt burden of a college education in the U.S”
The CC or online or working your way through college would be more likely (schools like NYU SPS exist in many major cities). I certainly would not force a kid with no interest in the military to go that route.
Ivy’s have been going up about 3% a year over the last five years (about as long as I’ve been paying attention), so the 5% might be a little high, or not.
Back in the ancient past when I was in school (Late 70’s early 80’s) UPenn close to doubled in price over four years.
Regarding the military and service academies, about 29% of young Americans are considered fit for US military service. So there are presumably lots of potential college students who, even if interested in a military career, would not have the possibility of a service academy or ROTC in college.
As you can see, privates steadily increased prices after WWII and really ramped up in the '70’s, but because inflation was high in the '70’s, in real terms, college costs barely increased.
Once inflation was tamed by Volcker was when top college costs really started increasing in real terms.
A lot of kids simply aren’t good candidates for military service, no matter what.
I have a good friend whose son was very eager to enlist in the Navy immediately after high school graduation. Quite enthusiastic as he went off to serve his country… but he washed out of basic training within a few weeks and was sent home. It was just too much for him to handle. He wasn’t the type of student who would have qualified for a service academy – probably a B/C student in high school – but I’d assume that the service academies are even tougher.
Certainly, my kids would not have done well in the military. The physical fitness is one part of it – but there also has to be an emotional and psychological readiness. The service academies really are an option for a very select few. More power to them – and to their parents – but not a realistic option for the vast majority.
@ChoatieMom - My son is probably in a very minority of students who would have liked to have gone ROTC but is medically ineligible (asthma). He participated in Sea Cadets for a few years and we discovered he actually does very well in that type of environment. It’s a shame that with medication that controls his asthma well (he’s had one acute attack in all of high school) and with so many technical jobs in the military, that he’s unable to participate.
Some of the top 20 US universities are world-class. Expect to pay a world-class price if you are full-pay at a private university. A 3% inflation rate means that some private colleges will have sticker prices of over $100,000 per year in 10 years.
The inflation is happening at most schools, and no matter how often the Regents point at the new student center there’s no way they can all be World Class.
5% per annum is a little high for my crystal ball, which is ~3% guaranteed. Of course, that increase will be accompanied by a similar expansion in the financial aid budget.
OTOH, I also expect a push for free community college in the more progressive states.
Cheaper education and world class universities can be found abroad. D1 applied to 1 US school which happened to be a T20 school; we are full pay. She withdrew her application when she was accepted into her first choice St Andrew’s in Scotland. She is now in grad school at that same T20 school, under grad and post grad will be $25-30k cheaper than undergrad alone at that T20 school.