Typically unhooked kids from our regular northern NJ private school (this is almost as unhooked as you can be, if we could measure unhookedness on some scale ) who end up at HYP or equivalent schools, end up at or near the top of their chosen majors at these schools at the end of four years.
I know exactly the effect you are talking about, but merely being at or near the top of your major isnāt going to be enough on its own to put you into something like the top 5% of your class overall.
This leads to some interesting nuances, in my view.
Like, if you want to go on to graduate school, I think these are indeed often good choices for the typical excellent HS student, particularly if you are flexible about your major. Like, you may think you are going to kill it in Chemistry based on your experience with HS Chemistry, but you end up not so much killing it in college Chemistry. But it turns out you are actually quite good at Economics, and that becomes your major. And then you end up placed in a top Economics graduate program, including because those not-so-good grades you got in some Chemistry courses are largely irrelevant to them.
But things are a little riskier if you would rather go to a top law school. Frankly, the people who have higher GPAs because they were in a major they were good at from the start might have a bit of an edge on the student above. Still, if you make the switch soon enough, or maybe really kill it on the LSAT, you might still get into a very selective law school. But maybe your GPA keeps you out of Yale Law, because Yale Law is just that selective.
But what if you really want to stick with Chemistry? Thatās getting to where it is not so clear you are better off at the hyper-competitive college.
Anyway, the bottom line is when you are talking about the truly most selective placementsāso like not just a āT14ā law school, but specifically Yale Lawājust finding a major you are really good at isnāt necessarily enough. But again, that Chemistry-to-Econ student might be in the top third of their class overall, and get into a top Econ graduate program, or for that matter a T14 law school.
Which I do think is a large part of the appeal of these schools. Plan B is often still very, very good.