Number of 18 year olds will start declining in 2026, but if more students are applying to college there might not be a reduction as some have expected.
Of course none of that changes the fact that there are a huge number of unfilled college spots each year because there are too many colleges in the US, so I would expect continued college closings and/or M&A activity.
Yes, I read the same thing about there being more students in the pool, along with each student applying to more colleges. What a combination.
From past posts, the first week after the May 1st commit deadline is the first wave of WL acceptances at a lot of schools. My D22 would definitely consider her WL option over her first choice school, but not unless we visited it in person which will make for a crazy 72 hours, but I would be happy to do it if given the chance.
It will be fascinating to see how it is for my son in 2029
I am laughing so hard. I made a photocopy of my P.E. exam application with all my experience for their review, I recall it was typed. I filed it somewhere and must find it to bring back fond memories. This was the late 90s!
This was a quote from the Vanderbilt dean of admissions in a recent article:
āThe students on the waitlist today are like the students who got the Cornelius Vanderbilt [scholarship] four years ago,ā Christiansen said. āThese are phenomenal students.ā
Gives you an idea of how so much has changed in such a short time. We experienced first hand with D18 compared to D22. Glad to know itās not just my kids. Doesnāt really help, but at least we know this is an overall admissions challenge this year.
Has there been any sense in blogs or statements from other schools like Vanderbilt, Wash U, Emory (T20-T10) about the amount of students on the waitlist and their expected use of them? I am only really looking out for info on one WL and have only read about NDās statement thus far.
The only info I saw was that Vandy expects their WL to be ārobustā. I havenāt seen anything else. I think itās really hard to know how things will play out this year. There appear to be too many changes and variables to know what the yields will be. Iām sure the schools are getting the picture now, but I havenāt seen anything public.
What is the point of their ārobustā waitlists and saying every one in the waitlist should feel they have a realistic chance of getting in? If every year 7-8% of the total admitted class came from the waitlist, why arenāt they just adjusting the amount of initial offers they make to account for their usual yield rate? Thoughts?
I think Covid upended all the algorithms and they have no idea what their yield will be. The waitlists are being utilized as a safety net as many schools are terrifying of over enrollment like last year.
I agree, thatās the case for a lot of schools. Especially this year. It will be very interesting to see what the yield rates end up being. But in the above Vanderbilt article, they say 7-8% of the class is from the waitlist every year. I am perplexed why they donāt make more offers to begin with if it is reliably that number yearly.
Probably because they are really concerned about over-enrollment. They are changing to a residential college model and I think they have limited capacity. Between ED and WLs they have better control over enrollment. Thatās just my theory.
@UniversityMomma , that last 7-8% may allow gender balancing, FA budget tweaking, and departmental goals to be met - among other things. Itās more than just the total number of admits.
And this is protection against over enrollment. That is a huge problem for every school when it happens. And it tends to knock on for a few years in the form of complaints about housing, not being able to get classes, etc.
From what I have seen, waitlists are an overwhelming no, with some exceptions. Iāve seen schools waitlist more than 2x the size of the entire incoming class this year, which frankly is inappropriate. It is obscene. You start to wonder if they really reviewed your application, or just shelved it, and you paid a $75 app fee for false hope. Hopefully this whole process improvesā¦this is my last one to go to college, so we wonāt benefit, but I hope they fix it for the future.
This is my first kid in college, and so I am really learning as I go. So basically what I am understanding is that a school, such as VB, would intentionally leave a hole in the class that they plug with the waitlist to balance out various groups they want to have represented on campus, including amount of kids in various majors, after the amount of expected offers are accepted, assuming a ānormalā year and the usual yield rate. Very interesting and enlightening! It didnāt even occur to me that a school would purposefully leave a portion just for the waitlist in order to craft their class. Thanks!
I feel the same after a lot of anecdotal evidence, but I wonder if they numbers will bear this out when they release them ā it will be interesting to see how this yearās waitlist compares to past years, specifically the pre-pandemic years, in terms of number of students on it, how many offers they make to the waitlisted kids, and how many of those offers are accepted.
Yes, exactly. And if they got it wrong on yield, theyāll still have enough beds for everyone.
The admissions staff is ultimately evaluated on how well they met the various goals they were given. Profs complain if students canāt do the work, if nobody enrolls in their classes, or if freshman classes are over-enrolled.
The finance office complains if tuition revenue is below target. Coaches complain if rosters arenāt filled. Development complains if too many major donors are unhappy. There are DEI/FGLI objectives and often ones that relate to the local community.
Parents (and sometimes students) complain if kids are in forced triples or donāt get housing.
And what most AOs will tell you is that every year, they create a spectacular class and that just sets the bar higher for the next year!
Pipedream with the emphasis on dream. Still dreams can come true on occasion. Feet on the ground and happy to hear about a yes if it happens is what we told our kid. Kid knows already that itās a strong no with a sliver of hope. Fortunately, our kid has experienced other waitlists so knows not to spend too much energy on it.
My son got into some great schools, including one of his Top 5. He also got waitlisted at one of his top 5. He sent a LOCI as a formality, but was happily headed to the other school. One day after accepting his spot, he got a message from the WL school asking if he was still interested. He sent back a message saying if offered a spot he would definitely goā¦he got an admission message two days later. Mom and S21 flew up to see the school in person to check it out in personā¦and just felt very at home. Heās had a great first year and is very happy with his decision (though he also freely admits that he would have been happy at the other school). I believe they only took 6 kids from WL at that school last year.
