Safeties take into account other factors besides grades and test scores. What’s “safe” for one kid may not be safe for another. As most colleges are still test optional right now, grades are the primary consideration, along with rigor. Some high schools offer a broader range of rigorous classes than others. Admissions officers know this. If this student has access to Naviance, and Naviance indicates a school is a safety, that’s a pretty reliable indicator. Many schools that might be considered a safety aren’t safe if a student doesn’t show interest. OOS students applying to competitive publics should not consider those schools as safe.
So there are several factors at play when determining a safety.
That’s good to know, but it will be easier to attain her goal if she attends a college where she thinks she can be happy for four years, while still maintaining a great GPA.
I get the sense your list is somewhat prestige focused. It’s in her best interest to apply to some colleges where she can see herself thriving and being happy for four years. Maintaining a 4.0 at U Chicago (the old saying is that it’s “where fun goes to die”) for four years, for example, is a very tall order. Maintaining a 4.0 at Trinity College, as another example, will be a bit more manageable for a top student and is probably going to get her to the same destination with a LOT less stress.
As I’ve just mentioned Trinity, I will throw this in…
A good friend’s kid is graduating from Trinity this year. He has loved his time there. He had a full tuition scholarship and is headed to HYP to do a fully funded PhD in the fall. He had loads of research while in college. My kid and several of her friends, all of whom attended a NESCAC, also did plenty of research as undergrads. One of those students will be attending Stanford for a PhD, and another is headed to Oxbridge. Not med school, but you get the idea.
It is not difficult for students at LACs to get research and in fact, it can even be easier in some cases. They know their profs well, and those profs can write great letters of rec and help them find opportunities.
A not-quite-as-known college can clearly provide the motivated and resourceful student with everything they need to succeed. She should apply to reaches, but she would benefit from looking at a wider variety of schools because she deserves to also enjoy her time at college. I honestly can’t see a kid who would be happy at Claremont McKenna being happy at Grinnell, and vice versa.
IMO, your matches are AU, GWU, UCI, UCD (both are going to have the same issues with premed advising though), SCU, and CWRU. There are too many reaches: NE, BU, Grinnell, and all those you listed earlier. As for safeties, Boulder and some of the UCs and CSU’s should work, as long as she would be happy to attend.