<p>I hadn't seen this advice on this forum yet, perhaps I've missed it, but if I did so then have others so posting it here as another facet of this college selection process. Moody's and S&P reported that they have downgraded the credit ratings of several colleges, either because they borrowed too much or assets are too thin. I was suprised to see some of the names on the list, including Wellesley, Amherst and Tulane. The article suggests that, parents should really check under the hood before they buy:</p>
<p>"Bond ratings arent scoured like the U.S. News and World Report rankings. But if youre a parent preparing to start the college search with your son or daughter, the negative financial outlook raises plenty of questions to ask the college tour guide: Will outdated buildings be renovated? Will more part-time instructors replace retiring professors? Will classes get bigger or will students end up in partly online courses? Will the school even be in business by the time your child graduates in four years?"</p>
<p>Apparently, even the well endowed schools are running into peril having given away more than they've taken in from paying students. </p>
<p>"One analysis conducted by a small private college in the Northeast found that of the 4.3 million 18-year-olds in 2009, only 996 had above-average SAT scores, family incomes over $200,000 a year, and had indicated that they wanted to attend a small, private college in the mid-Atlantic or Northeast regions. Of course, hundreds of colleges are going after those same students."</p>
<p>If you read the original sources, some colleges that had a downgrade started at a high rating level. That describes some of the colleges you have listed. To go down one step from a very good to a moderately good bond rating is not a matter of great concern. There are about 8 or 10 different levels of ratings. The college may have experienced a slight reduction because they took out additional debt for essential physical improvements that will improve their ability to attract students. </p>
<p>However, for colleges that go down from a mediocre level to a poor bond rating, it is a matter of concern. Those colleges may be eating into the principal of their small endowments in order to stay afloat, and may be experiencing declining enrollment. They may not be able to afford to properly maintain their facilities, and may be cutting programs and staff. That becomes a downward spiral.</p>
<p>I believe the colleges that are in the worst shape don’t even show up on these lists. That is because they don’t go through the bond ratings agencies and the public bond market to issue debt, but instead go through local banks and other sources. </p>
<p>One private university is using loans that only involve paying interest for the first few years, after which their debt payments will explode.</p>
<p>By the way, only two public universities in the nation have received the highest bond rating from all three ratings agencies. One is UVa.</p>
<p>Thanks CT glad to hear thought it had slipped under the radar, should have known all you savvy folk were on it :)</p>
<p>@charlies agreed that high to mid is still great, but can’t emphasize enough to do your diligence. We took a hard look at whatever financial public information was available before making our selection this year</p>
<p>“outlook negative” is not a big deal. There are 10 “notches” in 4 major rating levels that are considered “investment grade”. Outlook negative means a probability of a one notch downgrade.</p>
<p>A downgrade below investment grade, while disconcerting, does not mean the college will go bankrupt. A higher probability of default, but that does not mean closing the school. Even a bankruptcy (of a currently investment grade rated school) is likely to result in reorganization, not closing.</p>
<p>One interesting number is “selectivity”: 13% for AAA rated schools, and 67% for Baa rated schools. Basically: The more people that want to go there, the more likely the school will stay in business.</p>
<p>Wellesley’s rating dropped from Aaa to Aa1 on the heals of borrowing $145 million that was primarily for capital improvements to the campus. This is still a very good rating. As Charlie notes, going from an excellent rating to slightly less than excellent should not impact someone’s decision to select a school, especially given that the borrowing is for capital improvements.</p>
<p>I am sure there are many schools whose rating should concern potential student’s, but in the case of Wellesley and I suspect Amherst, you would not be overly concerned.</p>
<p>Well, the US government has a AA+ rating from S&P and there are only four US corporations with AAA ratings from both Moody’s and S&P, so I would say that Wellesley’s Aa1 (or any Aa rating) is certainly not a cause for concern.</p>
<p>In fact, the definition of Aa from Moody’s is:</p>
<p>Obligations rated Aa are judged to be of high quality and are subject to very low credit risk.</p>
<p>Even a university who’s securities are A (from Moody’s) looks real good:</p>
<p>Obligations rated A are judged to be upper-medium grade and are subject to low credit risk.</p>
<p>Yes, a Moody’s downgrade from Aaa to Aa still means that the school’s financial condition is of less concern than one which was upgraded from Caa to B.</p>
<p>thanks Opera I hadn’t realized the link was broken. I was mainly alarmed at this point, </p>
<p>“In recent years, net tuition revenue — what’s left after grant aid is subtracted — has either been flat or falling at 73 percent of colleges. But most colleges and universities, particularly private ones, lack the market power to raise their prices significantly in a down economy.”</p>
<p>I guess a “thinning of the ranks” has been long overdue.</p>
<p>“lack the market power to raise their prices significantly in a down economy.”</p>
<p>That’s true of most companies. Not just colleges. Means that Teachers are not going to get raises. So, what is the teacher to do? It is not like there is another college that can pay more.</p>
<p>As long as everyone is in the same boat … nothing to see here.</p>
<p>I don’t agree that there is ‘nothing to see here’. I don’t think the increase in faculty salaries has been the cause of the escalation in tuition. </p>
<p>Once the government stops lending and/or the parents stop borrowing (that may be slowing already), combined with the declining # of graduating HS students…some of the colleges that have discounted off list price too heavily will have to fold. Many of them are using almost every tuition dollar to keep their doors open. </p>
<p>I agree that Amherst and Wellesley are not the concern. I just have this vague sense of unease when I sit in college info sessions and hear of all the merit aid offered. (Again, not Wellesley and Amherst, but the slightly less prestigious LACs and small private universities.) They discount both to attract the higher stat student but also the student who will be full pay after the merit award discount.</p>
<p>Part of the reason why colleges offer merit aid is to take advantage of the egos of students and parents. The colleges increase tuition, and then some give back most of the increase using merit aid. Everyone wants to feel they are special, and the pain of paying exorbitant tuition doesn’t feel as bad if you think you have been offered a great deal. It is like a buying a new car - the goal is to get every buyer to think they got a great discount.</p>
<p>I have started pulling section H2A from the CDS to try to judge how widespread the practice is at each college my son may consider. It just seems like a downward spiral. Families come to expect discounts and schools offer discounts until they can no longer afford to.</p>
<p>S and P, and Moody’s did NOT do a very good job of predicting the housing crash. I don’t hold a lot of stock in their opinions as a result. Maybe Nate Silver will weigh in on this.</p>
<p>I’m still agape at the less-than-a-thousand-out-of-4.3 million 2009 SAT test takers scored above average factoid. That simply can not be true. Many of the freshman classes of prestige universities number in the 900’s. Nearly all of these schools boast of median test scores well above average. The Ivys all claim they could have filled their incoming classes with well qualified (high SAT/high GPA) applicants many times over during any given admissions cycle. Harvard’s freshman class alone numbers above 1,600. Am I missing something here?</p>
<p>poetsheart, I think the article must be saying that of the “above-average” students (obviously half of students score above average) only 900+, as determined by some survey, indicated a desire to a attend a small, private college in the mid-Atlantic or Northeast. This is not surprising at all given that very few prospective college kids would have that particular goal or limit themselves to a specific kind of school so early. A lot more information is needed to make sense of that analysis.</p>
<p>Poetsheart—I share your surprise at that statement, even when you add the missing qualifier of …“family income over $200,000 a year”</p>
<p>“One analysis conducted by a small private college in the Northeast found that of the 4.3 million 18-year-olds in 2009, only 996 had above-average SAT scores, family incomes over $200,000 a year, and had indicated that they wanted to attend a small, private college in the mid-Atlantic or Northeast regions.”</p>
<p>I feel that a handful of towns in Fairfield county could represent that population.</p>
<p>I wasn’t saying that an increase in faculty salaries was the cause. I was saying that if all the colleges had to start cutting back on expenses, the first place to start is in salaries (the largest expense). Some would say college can’t freeze/cut salaries because they will loose faculty. If all schools cut back on salaries, then there is no opportunity for a teacher to move to another school to better their income.</p>
<p>That is what happened in this Great Recession. Companies lacked pricing power (and faced lower demand) so they had to freeze, or even cut pay. Employees had no choice but to accept the freeze or cut. Colleges are no different.</p>
<p>One could say that employees also lack pricing power in a down economy.</p>