^ @insanedreamer, your example is a good counterpoint to my numbers. Nevertheless I’d like an objective basis (beyond anecdotes) to estimate a “top” student’s chances over the entire space of “top” colleges. If my numbers don’t reflect your reality, it may be because I’m missing something in the numbers.
I wonder if your D’s 8 colleges were concentrated on the more selective end of the list? Or perhaps they included several need-aware colleges? Certainly, it’s also possible I’m underestimating the impact of hooks on selective admissions.
@tk21769, I think hooks/talents/achievements are big. At HYPSM, I would not be surprised if half or more are hooked, related to someone famous, or have some major talent/achievement. At other Ivies/equivalents, that may be a quarter, though note that at some LACs, athletes are almost half the student body.
@tk21769 I agree my example is purely anecdotal, and objective assessment would be needed - unfortunately the data needed is not public. But I have read similar anecdotes so I don’t think my D’s experience is by any means unique (in today’s world - 10 years ago was easier). Also, I should add some qualifications: as you surmised, my D’s 8 colleges were mostly at the top of your list: Stanford, Princeton, Penn, Cal, Chicago, Rice, Cornell, CMU. She was applying for engineering which is harder (especially at Cal and Cornell). She was waitlisted at the last 4, and CMU offered her a spot on a special “priority waitlist” with a high chance of getting accepted (but she chose not to as CMU didn’t offer as much aid and she was never that interested in it anyway), so maybe it’s fairer not to count that one and say make 7 out of 8 rejects. But the overall point still remains about even high achieving hook-less students needing to cast a wide net.
I agree that Miami and VT aren’t usually considered tippy top, but for many top students, there is at least one in-state public honors college option that expands the space of attractive options. Then there are schools a bit outside my top 40 in selectivity, such as Boston College, William & Mary, Emory, and Rochester. Or NYU (with over 5900 freshman places).
Maybe so, but some URMs already would be included in my estimated “top student” counts.
The net definitely does need to be wider than the 8 Ivies and a few peers, but not necessarily all that much wider. If Chicago, Rice, Cornell, and CMU all waitlisted your high-achieving daughter, then I bet she would have had a very good shot at places like USC, BC, Emory, Rensselaer, or Rochester. Not that there wouldn’t still be financial pressures, “fit” issues, etc., to juggle.
Not that it matters now, but that priority waitlist is total bull crap. I’m pretty sure every waitlisted candidate gets offered priority status as long as they pay that fee. Pretty sure it’s a money grab.
@Flurite I don’t know what it is with other colleges, but with CMU there was no fee to get on the priority waitlist; if I recall, the main condition was the results would be issued a couple of days after applications closed on April 1 and she would only have 48 hours to accept it (or something like that)
@tk21769 Yes, you’re right. The problem was she (and I) were going by average SAT/GPA scores to determine her chances, which “seemed” good by the numbers. Unfortunately I had not discovered CC at the time or we would had probably received good advice and likely applied to some of those you listed (in fact, one of those, Rensselaer, was her safety, and she got close to a full ride in grants + aid/fed.loans, she’s there now–so no regrets/complaints.)
@tk21769: “Maybe so, but some URMs already would be included in my estimated “top student” counts.”
Yes, but that doesn’t help top students who aren’t URM.
In any case, yes, if you expand the definition of attractive options and if you can pay any amount anywhere, I’m sure you will have attractive options.
So yes, I would be shocked if a top 1% student who applied to all of the top 50 (however you define them) as well as in-state honors college would be denied everywhere.
But that’s an arguement to send off a ton of applications, no?
Because a top 1% student without hooks who applies to only 8 of the top 50 (and the vast majority of those in the top 25) does run the real risk of being shut out everywhere.
@insanedreamer: too late now, but there are some colleges that favor female engineering majors (Mudd and Olin come to mind; also Caltech and MIT). Cal does not.
I was “priority waitlisted” at CMU. Yes, there is no fee to GET on the waitlist, but the idea is that if you are taken off the priority waitlist, you essentially MUST send in the couple hundred dollar deposit, essentially binding you to CMU if you get in. They do this so they don’t have to keep wading through the waitlist over the summer when they realize people are going to turn down their waitlist offer.
It’s a bunch of crap and is really just a money grab. Nobody last year got off the priority waitlist and I don’t know anybody who was waitlisted without being “priority” waitlisted.
It would be interesting if schools would ask certain student to be on a “committed WL”. If you get off it, you are committed. That would help students on multiple WL, bc it would let the schools know where they rank in the student’s WL choices…
If I choose to be placed on the priority waitlist at CMU, that means if they take me, I have to drop the money on the deposit fee (hundreds of dollars), saying I am committed to CMU. The thing is is that if you decide to NOT be on the priority waitlist, your chances of being admitted are pretty much null (they take priority kids first and even last year they took nobody off). Essentially, priority waitlists favor students who are willing to drop the couple hundred on the deposit fee AND accept whatever financial aid CMU gives when they admit you off the WL.
This seems innocent, but what if I am on numerous waitlists? If I want a chance at CMU, I am obviously going to take up its priority waitlist offer. However, what if I am waitlisted at a school that I like more than CMU? If I get admitted to both CMU and that school, I would have to forfeit the deposit fee that I was obliged to pay at CMU. Also, what if I want to compare FA offers between schools?
Also, it’s sort of crappy because I’m fairly certain they offer the vast vast majority of waitlisted applicants priority status and just turn it into some sort of rat race.
From there eyes, they can just send out offers to as many priority waitlist kids they need, guarantee the deposit money, and then just keep cycling through if some of the people forfeit their deposits.
No. RD kids have a very legitimate chance of getting in, if their stats stand out. If I am not on the priority waitlists because I do not want to take the financial risk, I am essentially eliminated from the contest (regardless of stats). Plus, the waitlist game is far more unpredictable than RD.
You have a 0% of chance of getting off the waitlist if you do not take priority status. Being taken off the non-priority waitlist hasn’t happened before, as far as I know.
I don’t know what school you are thinking of that has a 0% RD acceptance rate.
I am not sure if you are incoherent or not. You have a 0% chance of getting in ED if you don’t apply ED. Yeah, nobody is arguing with that, genius. That’s why you apply RD and you still have a very respectable shot.
This is not the case with the priority waitlist. Maybe you didn’t read my posts, but if you do not take priority status, your app is not even assessed until they exhaust the priority waitlist. They are willing to fill all the remaining spots through priority status. Is there any school that fills all its seats off of ED?