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[quote]
I don't know why people keep saying this; except to try to smugly feel like they're not missing out. There are still going to be corporate finance analyst classes hired right out of UG regardless of where the firms' underlying capital is coming from. They won't be as large as in the last few years, but they're far from going away completely. Even in the case of Lehman, their North American business was bought by Barclay's with a significant portion staying on performing the same roles as previously.
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<p>For those who have been in the industry (as you and I have), I think the point isn't that "i-banking is dead" -- as you note -- the role in one form or another will continue to exist. The phrase should probably be "investment BANKS are dead".</p>
<p>The mystique, the "prestige" and most importantly, the compensation (read: MONEY) related to the i-banking industry of years past will largely be scaled down. There aren't any stand alone full-scale investment banks left anymore (note: "full-scale" not just an advisory boutique like Lazard or Greenhill -- I'm talking about advisory plus sales / trading plus research). Just take a look at the traditional "Bulge Bracket" Wall Street firms (as defined by the leading underwriters of equity, debt and advisory on M&A transactions over the last 5 decades -- 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s, 00s):</p>
<ul>
<li>Goldman Sachs --> Bank Holding co.</li>
<li>Morgan Stanley --> Bank Holding co.</li>
<li>First Boston --> Credit Suisse</li>
<li>Salomon Brothers --> Citigroup</li>
<li>Merrill Lynch --> Bank of America</li>
<li>Lehman Brothers --> gone (with defunct pieces bought up by Barclays and Nomura)</li>
</ul>
<p>Other players: Deutsche Bank, UBS and JP Morgan --> all banks</p>
<p>The point being when you run a firm based on "risk / reward" (i.e. prop trading, high leverage, shifting assets quickly to the "hot" sector -- be it M&A or equity or derivatives or sub-prime) -- you can afford to pay your employees above the average worker, as long as the model works. That model of taking on risk (and hence, the reward) no longer works. That model is broken. Take a look at the first moves a large bank makes when it acquired i-banks -- they all shut down the ultimate "risk/reward" center -- the proprietary trading desks. And I suspect that when the higher pay is taken out of the equation (and with it a measure of prestige, selectivity and overall desirability), fewer and fewer quality folks will be clamoring for a position in the space that was formerly occupied by "investment banks". Just take a look at Merrill's John Thain trying to justify his bonus to BofA shareholders -- there will be similar discussions within the large banks that swallowed up these i-banking units... do you want to be in an industry where you not only need to justify your existence but your pay structure? I mean let's face it folks, why would anyone want to put up with the grueling hours and stress with an axe just waiting to cut you and your division out -- and ultimately if you survive, the pay and prestige aren't what it used to be? No thanks.</p>
<p>If I were coming out of university now, there is no way an i-banking job would be on the top of my list as it was when I was graduating... I suspect that feeling will only grow stronger as the dust settles from the current financial crisis.</p>