My kids’ colleges were slightly different, but they seemed to base FA more on the custodial parent’s income than on the NCP’s. So you may be closer to the $10k than the $20k - it will depend on the school though.
It’s unfortunate but the net price calculators really don’t work for divorced parents very well at all.
You say you have financial safeties so my advice is to sit tight and see what comes back in March.