<p>We won’t have to wait long to see what effect the financial meltdown has on college admissions. In a few months we’ll know.</p>
<p>I suspect that the effect will be a shock for private colleges and universities. Here in California the cost of a CSU education is under $5K per year for students living at home. Most students in California apply to a CSU school even if they have no intention of going to one. This would allow these students, or more likely their parents, to opt for a very low cost education at the last minute. It would create havoc for the CSU and even UC schools if they give out too many acceptances and get a far higher yield than expected.</p>
<p>Investment portfolios are not going to bounce back in time to make families feel they can afford an expensive college or university in time for Fall 2009 and maybe not for the following year or two as well. If a rush to CSU and UC schools occurs as I think it might, it would result in these schools becoming far more selective and in the privates going crazy trying to maintain their enrollments. The really elite schools won’t have a problem, but what about a school like University of San Diego which costs as much to attend as an Ivy? It isn’t much more selective than San Diego State University and far less selective than UCSD. How does a parent follow through on a promise to consider USD when a much larger variety of educational opportunity, albeit without the private school handholding, exists on the other end of Mission Valley at SDSU?</p>
<p>Maybe things aren’t as dire and I think they are, but remember how sanguine some people were about the financial markets just a few weeks ago. This could get really bad for the vast majority of private colleges and universities which are not highly ranked for their academic programs and yet charge premium tuition.</p>