Deferred, but ugly first semester grades ...

I was deferred today (3.65/4.0 at my school UW, 3.85 UM GPA, 32 ACT) as expected today, OOS from MA. While expected, of course it was disappointing since Michigan is my first choice. While I know a deferral from UM isn’t a total death sentence, I’m worried because my first semester grades are going to be kind of ugly. I have been hospitalized for the last 2 weeks (and likely have another 2 to go) for a mental health condition, meaning I’ve been out of school for a while and will be entering back sometime in January. I will be working out something with my teachers (2 APs, all honors courses) through my school to make up the work. While I haven’t worked it all out yet, I might be dropping an elective science class, dropping down in math, or taking some classes Pass/Fail—don’t know quite yet, just know that these are some of my options once I get back. My first quarter grades were fine, but obviously my second quarter grades are going to be a different story. My guidance counselor can/will probably write a letter explaining the circumstances, but what affect might this have on my chances of that deferral turning into an acceptance?

Thanks in advance, and congrats to all the accepted!!

Your GPA was on the low end at the time of application. The typical competitive applicant has at least a 3.8 UW GPA, and that tends to be the one used for review, since the algorithm for calculating that tends to be more consistent across schools. If this semester was a large issue for you due to your circumstances, your counselor can help you.