<p>Does getting deferred from EA/ED into regular raise your chances even in the regular pool?</p>
<p>No. If anything, at most schools its a sign you're more likely to get rejected RD. Most colleges have a policy of not rejected EA/ED applicants. Now some of the deferred people will be admitted; they really were on the bubble. But there are plenty of apps that the adcoms can look at and know they're not getting in. It seems to make people feel better to think they "still have a shot" or "they'll take another look at my app" if they are deferred. So instead of sending out what they know the decision will be, they put the file into the rejected stack but send out a "deferral" letter. When you get a deferral letter, then, you have know way of knowing whether its because they already made up their mind or whether you still have a real chance. What you DO know, however, is that you're not in the group of candidates they have decided to admit, even with the somewhat relaxed standards colleges use for ED/EA. Which is a bad sign...</p>