Determining "match" schools

Parents Forum
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<p>As a ballpark judgment call, how much above the average SAT scores for students admitted to a college does my daughter need to be to have some chance? </p>

<p>I'm figuring she'll need to be above the average for any school where she's not a legacy - she's not a varsity athlete or symphony-level musician who might get in with a below average SAT. Her ECs are in the above average range, but not extraordinary (editor of newspaper, science research for 3 years and conference posters, etc.) and her grades are in the top 20% at an independent school which we think might be ranked around 50th in the country for SAT's of graduating seniors. </p>

<p>Am I guessing right that it might be a "match" if she's about 25 points over the average? How far above her SAT's would a reasonable "reach" be, or is there any such thing? And what would be a good margin of safety for a "likely admit"?</p>

<p>For the schools where she's a legacy, is it right that we can consider it to be a potential "match" if she meets the average? </p>

<p>Many thanks!</p>

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<p>I'm confused. I'll never forget another post you wrote saying you did 97% on the SSAT yet got 1100 on the SAT. It truly scared me to think that was possible! In that one you claimed to be a kid...</p>

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<p>I'm sorry one of our earlier posts worried you (the SSAT/PSAT disparity one). </p>

<p>I'm a mom, but my daughter sometimes asks me to post a question on the more kid-oriented panels under "our name". We've been approaching this college thing as a team, generally speaking. I'm a good researcher, so have been gathering information which I relay to her. Maybe I should make it clear when its more my voice what I am and when it's hers, that she's a kid. I can see how it might be annoying to not know what you're talking to.</p>

<p>Re. the SSAT/PSAT thing, you probably saw that a few people wrote in and said that their PSAT and SAT scores were quite different. My daughter thinks it was a fluke that she did so poorly on the PSAT, and hopefully she's right since most other test scores are more in alignment with the upper 90's. I'll post when she gets this years PSAT and SATs. Probably for us it was a good wake-up call to not take it too casually. Best of luck to you -</p>

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<p>My advice: don't focus just on where her test scores fall. Also take into account how selective each school is. </p>

<p>25 points above the median at a school that accepts 50-60% of students is a match. 25 points above the median at a school that accepts 30-40% is probably a reach. 25 points above the median at a school that accepts less than 30% is probably an unrealistic reach. 25 points above the median at a school that accepts 80% (say in ED or EA) is probably nearing a safety. Obviously, her grades and curriculum are also going to come into play but you can use the test scores and selectivity as a basic screening tool.</p>

<p>Finally, don't count too heavily on legacy status. It's usually a tipping point (i.e., if it gets down between two equally qualified applicants, favor might tip towards the legacy) not a deciding point at most schools. Unless, of course, you're either a big donor or a potential big donor. :)</p>

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<p>many school shave the 25%tile and 75%tile SAT scores, I woudl think that would be useful in the match category. From what I have seen you need to be very careful about this match and safety thing... with both the number of college age kids rising--I think it peaks for incoming freshmen in 2010 --or so--the so calle dbaby boom echo -- Seems many people are surprised by what really consitutes a match --that is they are overly optimistic</p>

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<p>Good point Zxc. Deciding which schools are good bets (the term I prefer to safeties), possibles (matches) and lottery schools (reaches) is not a quantifiable science, but an art --- you never know how each year's applicant pool to a particular school is going to stack up next to your stats, and you also don't automatically know what each school values in applicants. In general, I err on the side of caution.</p>

<p>Regarding test scores, it's also important to see where your individual section test scores fall --- are you towards the top in writing, but not in math? Then a 25 points above the median SAT might not make it a match because you have a "weak point" in your overall package. US News & World Reports premium edition is a good place to get this information because they also break it down by the percentages that scored in each individual SAT test range (i.e., if 80% scored above 600 on reading, your score is in the 500s, being 25% above the median overall may not make it a match if the school values verbal scores)</p>

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<p>befuddled - I don't know if this holds for the "new" SAT, because it was based on the old 1600 max score. I don't even know if it "held" for the old SAT, but this is a set of numeric guidelines I have seen:</p>

<p>After finding the SAT from the school's profile, if your score is:
+60 points or more, it is a "for sure" school
-60 to +60, it is a "50/50 chance" school
-60 points or less, it is a "reach" school for you.</p>

<p>Not to disagree with carolyn and others who have posted, just relaying a rubric I have seen.</p>

<p>Some schools (maybe only the most selective ones?) post information on their website which shows applicant success by SAT score:
eg, 1500-1600: 50% accepted
1400-1500: 33% accepted , etc.</p>

<p>This may help if you can find it for schools of interest. There was a thread on this before, but I don't remember the title. And, of course, as above posters have pointed out, these data are immediately out of date. But, then again, they're the only "hard" data we have to look at.</p>

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<p>befuddled:</p>

<p>25 points per test is statistically immaterial -- there is absolutely no difference between that score and the median, since one more correct math bubble would earn at least that many points. Indeed, the CB reports generally show a range of 40 points per score.</p>

<p>I'm with zxc in looking at the percentile distribution. Harvard, for example, has a 50-75% range of 1400-1590, or a range of 190 points (USNews data).</p>

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<p>


Hate to disagree, but the idea that an SAT at or above median could leave a college as an "unrealistic" reach makes no sense statistically -- obviously the college is going to consider any student whose test scores are within their median range. (Or else, how would they get to that median?). The difference between admission/rejection is going to be based on other factors, because essentially the test score in such a situation is a neutral factor, neither above nor below the norm for the appicant pool. </p>

<p>So, all things being equal, 25 points "above" the median at a school that accepts less than 30% means that the student has a 30% or less chance of being admitted - still "reach" but hardly "impossible". </p>

<p>Also, I think the reason that colleges typically report the 25-75% range rather than median is because that is the more significant and accurate way of looking at test scores. I doubt that any college would exclude any student whose scores were in range if other factors (GPA, class rank, strength of high school curriculum, individual talents & abilities, etc.) made the student an attractive candidate. </p>

<p>I personally looked at any college where my son's test scores were at or above median, and which had an acceptance rate of 30% or more, as a match -- and he got into all but one college where he applied. The one college that waitlisted him placed importance on a different factor than scores - in his case, class rank. </p>

<p>If the scores are at or above median and the acceptance rate is above 60%, the school is probably a safety.... but again, you really have to look at the whole picture.</p>

<p>Also, to clarify Bluebayou's post, Harvard's 25%-75% range is 1400-1590 -- when colleges report the median 50 percent range, it is always the 25-75 percentile, not 50-75 percentile.</p>

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<p>befuddled - It appears that you're looking for an absolute response. As many above have indicated, there is no absolute answer to the question as you pose it. I agree with bluebayou who says 25 points is statistically immaterial. I would go further by suggesting that even a 50 point or 100 point difference has very little predictive value in the absence of supporting data: GPA, class rank, AP classes, ECs, demonstrated interest, selectivity of the college, early application, etc. My D, who had an excellent academic record, was turned down at one school where her SAT scores put her in the 85th percentile of the incoming class. The school had limited out-of-state slots, and declined to award one to a non-legacy, non-athlete, regular decision, suburban female who needed financial aid to attend. Their decision was not a surprise under the circumstances. But it illustrates the futility of using SAT scores to predict admission. (Try to imagine the frustration of those perfect SAT score Ivy League applicants who are turned away each year -- rejected though their scores are at the very top.) "Match" does not equal "Admit." That's why there's a category called "Safety."</p>

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<p>Using SAT score to estimate chances may be risky...as noted above "total package" ,particularly rigor of classes, may be more hepful. Asking the HS counselor, if they have experience, can give some insight. They ought to be able to compare similar students to your kid and provide a reasonable guess.</p>

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<p>calmom:</p>

<p>while you are mathematically, correct, it is important to break out admittance by subscore, IMO. </p>

<p>Considering just one highly selective, small LAC which places a premium on sports...roughly 10-20% of the class can be recruited and or tipped athletes. Based on most books published by former adcoms, hockey players are in need in the NE, and, on average, have the lowest SAT scores of the matriculating class. Throw in a few low-scoring football players, swimmers, basketball & softball players, etc., all of whom have a major hook, and all of a sudden, that bottom 25% of test scores can fill up pretty quickly. Subtract those kids' scores from the app pool, and all of a sudden the mean jumps significantly. Thus, that suburban, non-athletic, unhooked applicant, is really competing for a spot with suburban kids with much higher scores.</p>

<p>Thus, I'm with Carolyn in that an unhooked kid with the mean SAT score has nearly zero chance at a highly selective school.</p>

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<p>bluebayou -- I honestly would hate to be the one to tell the unhooked, mean scorer not to apply, especially given the fact that the mean scores for these ultra-selective colleges are so high. I mean, what you are saying essentially is that the non-athlete, non-URM kid with a 1490 SAT would have -0- chance at Harvard ... and I don't think that the admission stats would bear that out. That is, I don't think you are going to find that all the lowest SATs are athletes & URMs, and all the white, nonathletic kids at Harvard have SATs above 1550. </p>

<p>I'm not saying it makes the school a match - a mean-level SAT + lower-than-50% admit rate will make rejection more likely than admission. I'm just quibbling with the concept of "impossible" or -0- chance when the kid has stats that are "in range" for the school. It seems to me that kid would be well advised to work very hard on the essay and to try to get the best possible rec letters -- and from there view the school as a reach with a "possibility" of getting in. Not a sure thing, not even a probability -- I'm just quibbling with the idea of "impossible". </p>

<p>At some point or other, all of the world's most successful leaders and entrepeneurs went right ahead and tried something that others were telling them they were sure to fail at. The only thing for certain is that you can't get into Harvard if you don't apply. I believe 100% that kids should build their college admit strategy from the bottom up, choosing safeties that they will be happy to attend -- but I also feel that they should at least give a fighting chance to their dreams. If stats are below average, then I think kids need to face reality and should save their money rather than throwing away an applicaition fee. But in-range(?) -- I think you are reading far too much into an assumption that the hooked applicants are bringing down the average that far.</p>

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<p>"Finally, don't count too heavily on legacy status. It's usually a tipping point (i.e., if it gets down between two equally qualified applicants, favor might tip towards the legacy) not a deciding point at most schools. Unless, of course, you're either a big donor or a potential big donor."</p>

<p>I think you need to be careful about generalizations on legacy. At some schools like U Chicago, legacy status has little impact at all. At others, legacy status does make a difference. </p>

<p>Here are just two examples. Being a legacy at U Va. automatically puts you into the in-state pool, and this does make a real difference in admissions. Another example is the legacy admit rate at Brown. Legacies who ask for aid have an admit rate of 35%; those who do not request aid have an admit rate of 42%. Both of these figures are higher than the general admit rate (16-17%) or even ED (25%).</p>

<p>The best thing to do is to contact the school--start with the alum office rather than admissions--and ask them for an honest assessment.</p>