<p>Is it really a numbers game...?</p>
<p>Not me, a student at school; he was playing with chances. Now stuck at a midwestern state school on full National Merit Scholarship.</p>
<p>Stanford, Harvard, Princeton, CIT, MIT, Duke
35/2360</p>
<p>Someone we know applied to more than 8 reaches and did not get into a single one. Surprised me. I knew the top schools were a stretch, but some of the schools seemed quite reasonable. She had about 2100 in SATs, rigorous courses, good strong high school, top 10% in class with a 4.0+ weighted, about a half dozen APS, good ECs, and well thought of by the school. I think one problem was that she tended to pick schools that were very common for her area, all NE schools, and because she was a female, those LACs and some of her other choices were not to her advantage admissions wise. I thought she would get into BC, Vassar, Bowdoin, Colgate, NYU, for instance and was surprised that she was waitlisted or rejected. I hear that it was a tough year. Fortunately, she had her safety from the onset that she did EA, which was truly a solace as she did like it a lot. She was a legacy at her ED choice which was a true reach, and did not take her (dad was very heavily involved with the alumni organization and generously but not richly donated regularly), and family had some heavy duty connections at some of the other reaches. Did not help.</p>
<p>Thanks for the replies!
I suppose success stories too? anybody?</p>
<p>Someone I know.
1600 CR+M, 4.0, 3/~250.
Rejected from HYPSM, Olin, St. John's.</p>
<p>friend this year applied to all ivies and top schools like stanford, about 15 of them. and she didn't get into any of them. She has 4.0 and 2100 SAT, very involved with ECs. She applied to all of them with the hope of getting into at least one of them but didn't. Now she has to wait a gap year and apply again next year.</p>
<p>holy $%^$ that sucks!</p>
<p>^ I'd be so depressed if that happened - i mean spending the time applying to so many in such great hopes..then getting pwned...</p>
<p>swellkisses, did she only apply to reaches?</p>
<p>It seems odd that someone with stats like kwu's and swellkisses' friend would be rejected from ALL of those schools, but it's not like applying to a bunch of reaches increases your chance at each <em>individual</em> school...trying to think of an analogous situation in real life...</p>
<p>yes, statitically speaking that makes sense, but looking at the subjectivity of admissions and especially the inconsitency lately, it is becoming more common for kids to get rejected from tufts and get into harvard. also think that your application is read by subjective people and maybe a subjective committe, so while applying to more schools doesnt make your application better, maybe you'll get lucky with one admissions guy and you'll get in.</p>
<p>...its just seeming that way to me. i may be 100% wrong though.</p>
<p>It's like the lottery. Playing twice as many tickets doesn't increase your chance on each ticket. With one ticket, you'd have a 1 in 16 million chance. With two tickets, you'd have two 1 in 16 million chances, not a 1 in 8 million chance.</p>
<p>^ There is no difference. Or am I lloking at this wrong. Sure, your chance per ticket does not change, but the more you have, the better chance you will win, which is the point, not whether one ticket wins or not.</p>
<p>i think a more accurate lottery analogy would be -- you buy a ticket in each of two different lotteries each of which have a 1 in 16 million chance-- each ticket still has a one in 16 million chance. (if you bought 2 tickets in the same lottery, i think you would have a 2 in 16 million chance)</p>
<p>each application is separate -- your chance at ABC University doesn't change whether you also apply to 12 comparably selective schools or if you apply to ABC and only safeties. if your chances at each of your reaches is low (as they are for everyone at superselective schools, applying to more just means that you are applying to a lot of places where your chances are low NOT that you are increasing your overall chances.)</p>
<p>(and i also know students who fell victim to the "i have to get into at least one of my reaches" way of thinking and ended up at safeties.)</p>
<p>It's really just like applying for internships or job offers - you apply to like 10 jobs or internships, get rejected at 8 of em, and then choose between 2. College admissions though are a lot easier than job offers and internship applications usually though.</p>
<p>I stand by my original analogy. You have more tickets, but each ticket still only has a 1 in 16 million chance. One ticket doesn't affect the other ticket's chances, and H doesn't know you're applying to S or P or M; each application stands on its own merits. Applying to all the Ivies doesn't increase your chance at any single one.</p>
<p>^if they are for the same lottery, then the chance is definitely 2 in 16 million. It does effect the chance, because well they are for the same lottery so you have two chances to win it. This would simplified to 1 out of 8 million. </p>
<p>Now for separate lotteries, I don't know enough about statistics to know exactly what happens</p>
<p>I am going to quit poking fun at the lottery analogy, because it still does not make sense. It is like the chance of rain is 10 percent one day, for 10 days. It, probably will rain one of those days. I realize the chance of rain one day does not effect the next day, but the abundance in days at 10 percent will increace the chance of it raining AT ALL, which is the point. Replace the "chance of rain" with "chance of being accpeted" and the word "day" with the word "college"</p>
<p>So, two lottery tickets gets you a 2 in 16 million chance? Then all you'd need to do is buy 16 million tickets to definitely win, by your estimate. Even if all the 16 million tickets you bought have numbers 1 2 3 4 5 and 6 but the winner is 1 2 3 4 5 7?</p>
<p>If you apply to one Ivy you have a one in 8 chance (there are 8, right?). If you all apply to all 8 of them, you're definitely in? I don't think so.</p>
<p>OK, I'll drop it, too! :)</p>