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<p>Some people do. I remember Northwestern’s naviance graph vividly, and there was just a large circle of green at one area with no red. These are not people with absolutely stellar stats (relatively). Just really solid grades and test scores (ftw, I think the center of the large green bubble was around a 3.8UW gpa and 34 ACT, which are conservativily high estimates). So, for our valedictorian NU would be a safety (although he didn’t apply. only applied to ivies). Now, extend this analysis to lower ivies. Same thing holds, except the UW GPA is higher (test scores pretty much remain the same, which makes sense, as a 34 is good for HYPSM admits as well and test scores aren’t really that important). So, a large green area up in the top right corner. No red or blue. And this is all based on stats alone, obviously. When ECs and hooks and such are factored in, even HYPSM can become safeties. It’s the truth. It might be hard for some of you guys at lesser or smaller high schools to realize this, but it’s true. </p>
<p>Now, the argument really comes down to definitions. If you define a safety as a 99% plus chance of admission, I can’t say that the lower ivies for some students are safeties, as 99 is extremely high and there isn’t enough naviance data to support that conclusion (100% for 10-15 people does not mean 100% for 100 people, imo). But, I define a safety as somewhere where one would be wholly surprised if rejected/waitlisted. Under my definition, lower ivies easily classify as safeties for some students. If we find a middle ground between our definitions, I still think that lower ivies are safeties for some students, especially if non-stats factors are considered. </p>
<p>Now, we are talking about a huge minority of the population, so it’s really not that important overall. But I do not support making such broad absolute generalizations (which the first poster I quoted did), especially when there is evidence supporting the contrary.</p>
<p>Edit: The reason that there are lots of people who get into HYPSM but not some lower ivies or the equivalent (me included) could be attributed to Tufts syndrome, but it is probably more, imo, because there is a crapshoot factor at these top schools. Like Caltech, a common rejection place for many HYPSM admits, might not like your math/science grades, whereas Stanford would love your well-roundedness. Dartmouth might not like your writing abilities, whereas MIT could care less. MIT might give girls an edge in admissions (might is being nice), Cornell probably doesn’t. You see where I’m getting here?</p>