Do I have a chance at Berkeley?

I’m a junior at a high school in California. Due to the death of my sister and medical problems, my freshman year GPA is terrible with roughly a 2.0 both semesters while my sophomore grades are not that better with a 3.0 both semesters. My junior GPA (so far) is better with a 4.0 UW and 4.6 W. My UC GPA (weighted and capped) as of now is 3.6; if I get the same grades second semester (and as of now, I’m doing well), it would be 4.0. My unweighted UC GPA would be 3.6

Here are my grades so far throughout high school (single grade means that was my grade both semesters):

Freshman (Semester 1/2):
Geometry: D
English: B
Biology: D/C
PE: B
Journalism: A
Spanish 1: D

Sophomore (Semester 1/2):
Geometry: B
Pre-AP English 10: A
Chemistry: C
PE: D
Journalism: A
AP European History: B (Got a 3 on the exam at the end of the year)

Junior (Semester 1):
Algebra II: A
AP English Lit: A
AP US History: A
AP Environmental Science: A
AP Psychology: A
Spanish 1: A

I took the ACT on Feb 6 and hopefully will get the results as early as Tuesday. My practice scores were 30, though. At what score should I not retake?

What are my realistic chances to UC Berkeley? I’d want to major in political science. Are there any other specific UC’s that I should be looking at?

Not sure if it would matter but I am a registered Native American. My income bracket is also around 70K.

You should not retake after 33/34 and since you have shown a great upwards trend your gpa would not be a major problem, but it will affect your application. I’d say look at UCLA & UCSD and maybe UCSB. IMO, If you have decent Extra Curriculars and a 33+ ACT, you have a good shot at Berkeley.