It can definitely help if you’re deciding between two otherwise even schools. But in most situations, I don’t think that it makes a huge difference.
Speaking as someone who has received several 3 likely letters (Stanford, Vanderbilt, and Penn), I have to say that while it felt nice, I didn’t move Vanderbilt and Penn up on my list. Stanford was already a school that I was very seriously considering and so I was really psyched about their letter. Since my acceptance, they’ve overtaken my original first choice school (Princeton), although I’m unsure whether or not this has anything to do with the letter.
I am a parent and it definitely influenced how I felt about DD’s college choices. I am probably guilty of gently pushing her towards the school that sent her a likely letter even though she was accepted at schools ranked higher for her major. This year DS received one and he is already planning to attend that college even though he hasn’t heard back from 11 other schools yet. He did not allow himself to get attached to any particular school until he was accepted. He is getting about a 5 week headstart getting attached to the school that showed him the love first.
My son applied and was accepted to an engineering school that he really likes. And they gave nice aid. He is still waiting to hear from one more (well, two, but really one). With each day that passes, he feels more like he is probably going to the school that already accepted him. BUT if school number two happened to send a “likely letter” it could slow the inexorable growth of his attachment to the first school, and leave a little more mental space to really weigh the offers (assuming of course that he is accepted by that other school(. I realize this does not answer either question however!
@Lkjh0987 -Were all of your son’s dozen colleges on more-or-less equal footing BEFORE he received the Likely Letter or was the one that sent the Likely Letter near the top of the list to begin with?
@Sally_Rubenstone DS is very realistic about the admission process. His colleges were more or less on equal footing because he would not allow himself to become attached before being accepted. All are highly ranked for his intended major. He says he would be happy at any of the schools he applied to.
Likely letters can help schools get ahead in the race. They give a school it’s own bubble of time for student and parent to check it out more deeply, perhaps visit, and can lead to them being emotionally invested in the school. In the absence of an honors or scholarship, it makes the student feel wanted and in a special group. It definitely pushed our student toward a school, we set up a visit and invested way more time looking at the school, but in the end, once the #1 came in, it won out. But it was soooo close (and final decision influenced by sibling already being at #1 choice). In our case, without the likely letter, I don’t think we would have researched the school nearly so deep (which if attending leads to a better start cause you know more about the school…domino effect). And if sibling wasn’t already at #1, the likely letter would have probably helped seal the deal. The follow up with a great engineering open house (which the likely invited student/family to) was another aspect to the whole likely process. For me personally as a parent, I like them getting something in this little pocket of time so they can give good thought to it, rather than the piling up that occurs last couple weeks of March.
I don’t think a likely letter would influence my D’s choices since, for us, it truly is about the financial (merit) aid. Even if her top choice sent a likely letter, if it wasn’t followed up by substantial merit aid, the school would not stay at the top of the list. D has applied only to small LACs. Also, she applied EA to many schools and already heard back from these schools, so she knows she has acceptances. She was offered incredible merit aid from one school (not her first choice or even at the top of her original list), so she has a “bird-in-hand” and know that she will be able to attend a LAC. She really did not want to attend a large public U where we could actually afford the tuition, room, and board costs. 
However, for kids who do not have EA acceptances, are waiting for the RD notices, and can afford to attend regardless of cost, a likely letter is probably going to 1) take some of the stress off them, and 2) put that school higher on their list than it had been. So, my take on it is that it really depends on personal circumstances.
Sally, your question, “Just to be the devil’s advocate here, if your son got a Likely Letter from an Ivy but better MONEY from another school on his list, where do you think he’d end up?”, seems to presuppose that schools in the Ivy League are preferable to all other schools. You don’t really believe that, do you?
I believe it should be about fit but, even if one is obsessed with rankings or prestige, “Ivy League or bust” doesn’t make a lot of sense.
To insert an Ivy an non-Ivy school into you hypothetical, what if the the question was posed as:
If your son got a LL from Cornell but better money from Stanford, where do you think he’d end up?
@sherpa- When I asked that question about an Ivy, I directed it specifically to a parent who had already said, “While he wants Ivy, it probably won’t happen but I think he understands the odds are against him.” I was not making any statement about the desirability of an Ivy over any other school.
@VSG, my daughter and I talked about that Groucho Marx quote last night! I totally agree that the “if they want me that much, maybe they’re not so selective after all” phenom is real – especially if the LL comes from a school other than the #1 choice.
In our case a likely letter from Dartmouth had the effect of boosting my son’s confidence, in that it is obviously now feasible to think he is an appealing candidate for the Ivy League schools. And where there is one, there may be more than one! It also did make Dartmouth jump into a higher position on his list. We are on the west coast and the logistics of travel to and from Hanover, NH are daunting, but the fact that the school has made it known that they really want him, makes us a little more willing to see if we could make it work.
The main function of likely letters is to render applicants who don’t receive them anxious and depressed.
If I received a likely letter, I would be more likely to attend.
That said, I’m not the kind of student who is likely to get one. So my vote doesn’t count.
I’d say the good thing about a Likely Letter is that it gives you an extra month or more to drill into the details or even arrange a campus over-night.
As others have pointed out, those that get likely letters from one place will most likely get them from other places. Does sending out likely letters make them stalker schools?
- I don't have a first choice, so if the likely letter is from my "upper tier" of colleges, then yes, it would probably become my first choice.
- A lack of likely letter would not make a difference to me. If I'm accepted, I'm accepted.
- My first choice will always be my first choice as I'm sure others will concur. However, a likely letter would quickly boost a respected institution to second place, undoubtedly. I would look much more closely into the school and probably schedule a tour, thus succeeding in getting me excited about this option. What it would succeed in doing for the most part however, is assuaging my fears and confirming that I am an applicant of top or ivy league caliber which will serve to only give me more unbased hope over my first choice. Fingers crossed for Harvard?
- I wouldn't feel too anxious nor worried about receiving likely letters. I know the great majority of admitted students will never receive them and being so close to decision day, I'm perfectly fine with waiting out just a few weeks more. I know that those who do get them are highly competitive and know this when they apply, I do not categorize myself as such and thus don't set my hopes up for failure in such a manner. I don't take it personally, it's just business.
I received a likely postcard from William and Mary and went and visited the school shortly after receiving it. I had originally planned on just visiting during the Admitted Students day assuming I would have gotten accepted but getting the postcard definitely encouraged me to go and check out the school before the official letters would have been sent out. W&M was already one of my top choices but I applied to other schools as well. Now after receiving the postcard and visiting, I feel like I would still go to W&M even if I were to get into the other schools I applied to like UChicago…
As one of the high school seniors who received a likely letter from Penn in the first batch, I think these are great questions!
- I will tell you flat out that a likely letter is not going to change how I view a college. I am not going to be convinced that one college (Penn) would be a better fit for me simply because they accepted me first. On the other hand, it is a great feeling to be wanted. Throughout this application process, I've applied to a bunch of the top tier scholls, and all have felt very welcoming, except for a particular one in New York. I used to think this said university (you can probably guess) would clearly be over Penn on my list, but now I'm not sure and am leaning the opposite way.
- No! My top choice is my top choice, regardless of any letter. Even though I was deferred by them, they are still my top choice. I have always wanted to attend said college, and a likely letter from Penn would not sway me enough to change this.