Hello. Do you guys think the very possibility of many incoming new students deferring or taking a gap year during this upcoming fall semester will affect the chances of applicants for Fall 21 to be accepted? If a good number of new students who should be starting their career at their new school during the Fall 20 semester decide to wait to start until the following year then that could lead to fewer spots in classes and other resources (dorm rooms, food, etc.) thus leading to fewer acceptances for then-current applicants.
Absolutely.
Several colleges have announced tougher deferral policies, limiting the number, for just that reason.
But: there is no use agonizing over it, because there are just too many unknowns. It’s a season of uncertainty that is unlikely to end anytime soon. All anybody can do in seasons like this is to keep focused on their own path, walking it as best they can. So, focus on your studies, the ECs that are truly most important to you and (if different) how to be a good member of your community. As things settle down- and they always do, sooner or later- and the dust clears you will be in the best position possible for you, That is all any mortal can do in any crisis that life throws at you.
One other way that it might affect admissions is that the colleges may increase their ED acceptances. That way, they have a larger percentage of committed students.
College admissions for the class of 2025 will be affected in many ways. Gap year is just one of issues. Colleges that may face a large number of requests will limit them using a variety of means. Princeton, for example, has stated that a student who takes a gap year isn’t guaranteed a spot in the following year. Some colleges (e.g. MIT or Caltech) are unlikely to face a large number of requests and they may more readily grant gap year requests to partly help them achieve their campus de-desification goals.
There’ll be fewer international applicants next year, freeing up spots for more domestic students. More students will also choose local colleges next year, so students who are willing to travel may have better chance of admission at private colleges that are further away (they still cherish geo diversity) and OOS public universities (they need OOS students for their finances and geo diversity).
Do you think the same can affect transfer applicants? Will, the chances for transfer applicants to get accepted get higher?
that is even less knowable! in the Before, colleges knew how many students their dorms and classrooms could hold. Now, they don’t. In the Before, students knew pretty much what to expect from any given college. Now, they don’t.
On the one hand, colleges may have to reduce- slightly or significantly the number of students they have on campus. So, fewer places = more competition.
On the other hand, colleges may increase the number of virtual students and the attractiveness of the online offering (improved UX / lower cost / some combo of the two). So, more places = less competition.
For this year and next year, neither schools nor students know what the other will do. It could be that fewer students decide to transfer, so for those who do there is less competition. But, it could be that the number of students who have already deferred added to next years intake means that fewer transfers are accepted.
If you are looking at highly selective colleges, my bet is that it is not going to be meaningfully easier to get into any of them- as an incoming first year or a transfer- anytime soon. There are simply to many thousands of super-able students who will take whatever risks are required to get that brand name.
So, again: focus on walking your path as best you know how.