<p>
Looking at only the number of admitted students gives you no idea about the admit rate. For example, suppose 3x as many 3.9-4.0 students applied as 3.7-3.8 students. If both GPA groups had an equal admit rate, then there would be 3x as may 3.9+ students in the scatterplot, so the scatterplot would give a misleading conclusion.</p>
<p>Princeton publishes admit rate by UW GPA:
4.0 – 9.9%
3.9* - 9.8%
3.8* - 6.8%
3.7* - 5.9%
3.6* - 4.9%
3.5* - 3.1%</p>
<p>It looks 3.79 GPA applicants had a 2-3% lower overall admit rate than 4.0 GPA applicants. However, much of the difference in admit rate likely relates to correlations with other sections of the application, rather than the GPA itself. For example, the applicants with a 4.0 GPA are likely to also have higher class rank, greater course rigor, higher test scores, better LORs, better essays, more impressive academic awards, etc. I suspect that if you compared applicants with a similar rest of the application, the difference in admit rate would be less than the 2-3% suggested above. </p>