<p>Here's my comment on the OP: Say a kid applies to 10 schools and gets into eight. That means seven schools will get a letter saying 'thanks, but no thanks.' In theory, that means seven schools now have an opening. Multiply this by thousands of kids, and there should be thousands of openings. </p>
<p>But there aren't.</p>
<p>As we all know, schools aren't taking kids off their waiting lists. That tells me that either the students who apply to more than 5 schools are a minority; or that very few students get into multiple schools. Multiple applications do not seem to be affecting the process the way the OP suggests.</p>
<p>Maybe there are other explanations; I'm open to them.</p>
<p>I was supposing that they could continue reporting yield on this, changed, basis to discourage loading kids onto the waiting list without a purpose that benefits the kids.</p>
<p>As far as the formula, I think you are correct.</p>
<p>I am wondering if waitlists are a way to minimize finaid the college or university offers. Once students indicate they want to remain on the waitlist the college can cherry pick those students who do not require significant amounts of need based aid.</p>
<p>One college that wait listed my S wrote to ask if he wanted to maintain his position on the list. He replied no (this was a match/safety and he had already been accepted at his reaches). A couple of weeks later he received another letter asking him to reconsider. We could not quite figure out what that was all about, still can't.</p>
<p>Yeah, so far our kids' HS hasn't limited the number of aps, tho the counselor generally advises folks to apply to no more than 8 or 9 (my son applied to 8 because his safety admitted him with substantial merit aid so he didn't bother with the 9th). A friend's son applied to 14 & several of my son's friends applied to MANY. My niece only sent in 5 aps & only on their deadlines while waiting to hear from her EA choice--she stopped applying to other schools once she got in EA at her 1st choice.</p>
<p>The CC survey shows that there are a lot of folks on CC applying to large #s of schools.</p>
<p>
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Say a kid applies to 10 schools and gets into eight. That means seven schools will get a letter saying 'thanks, but no thanks.' In theory, that means seven schools now have an opening. ...
Maybe there are other explanations; I'm open to them.
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</p>
<p>My understanding is that colleges try to admit as many people as they have to in order to fill their class, GIVEN their historical yield. In other words, they admit more people than they have openings for, knowing that everyone won't accept. Usually this works out. Sometimes you hear of colleges in a bind, though, because they had an expectedly high level of acceptances. They then have to scramble to put together housing, etc.</p>
<p>The NYT article doesn't mention the other side of the equation - the kids who only do one application because they get in ED. The chart of schools the kid from California applied to had a rejection from Notre Dame, and it occurred to me the only way he would know at this date is if he'd done some kind of early application - so, if he'd gotten in, his list would have shrunk from 21 to one. Seems to me the reporter left out an important part of the discussion. (But it made for dramatic reading).</p>
<p>Although yield has been dropped as a direct factor in the USNews rankings, it is really still quite important. That is because if a school enjoys a very high yield, there is no need for large numbers of acceptances. That in turn leads to increased selectivity (lower acceptance RATE) which is indeed, still a major factor in the rankings!!</p>
<p>After focusing on this issue for coming on four years now, I have to say I do not think it is the same kind of crapshoot some of you people suggest --it only appears that way because most of us go into it with a dearth of knowledge. It appears to lack transparency but in fact it is far more logical than many are presenting it here. In my opinion, it is absolutely possible to target schools correctly with 8-10 applications and come up with top acceptances. But you must know what you are doing and be highly educated about the process. For those who know less, applying to 20 schools may be the solution --but that's a lot of work, especially when you are applying for financial aid, as well; when you are going on interviews and writing 20 supplementary essays and visiting 20 campuses, 20 applications may mean the quality of each app suffers --suffers greatly.</p>
<p>We sent 19 apps for older son and now 8 for the younger --I expect an outcome that is just as positive this time around. I had to know much more, and be far more expert, to do it this way.</p>
<p>
[quote]
Here's my comment on the OP: Say a kid applies to 10 schools and gets into eight. That means seven schools will get a letter saying 'thanks, but no thanks.' In theory, that means seven schools now have an opening. Multiply this by thousands of kids, and there should be thousands of openings.
[/quote]
Not exactly. This would hold if each school only accepted the number of kids equal to the number of places they have. But schools know their yield is not 100%, and have gotten good at estimating it from experience. So if school X knows its yield is 50%, it admits 2x as many kids as it has places for. 1/2 the kids accept, 1/2 decline, and all spaces are filled without having to use the waitlist.</p>
<p>Our How</a> Many Schools Did You Apply To? poll showed that well over half of the responders applied to at least 8 schools, and more than a third applied to 10 or more. Our population may not be typical of all high school students, but is probably fairly representative of kids aiming for very selective schools.</p>
<p>Presented with a combination of very low acceptance percentages and quite a bit of randomness in the selection process (ECs, talents, geography, etc.), it's quite logical for students to crank out more apps.</p>
<p>Yeah, it seems a lot like how airlines & hotels overbook. It all works out most of the time, except when more show up than expected & then there's a scramble. The way the system is currently creates a lot of ap fees for colleges & stress for students. <sigh></sigh></p>
<p>When we worked the probabilities last year, we determined that there was approximately a 5% chance for S to get nine rejections out of nine applications. Then Andi posted the "We're picking up the pieces" thread, and we decided to go to 11 apps, by adding a second safety and a fourth match school. This should have reduced the 5% odds to a 2% chance of disaster. So far, it looks like a good decision...</p>
<p>And that thread was why we added two schools to an original six --for a total of eight applications. S has already been accepted (in one case in the form of a likely letter) by four of them, and the other four we are still waiting on. BTW, the two we added were really financial safeties, and one has come through with an enormous scholarship... covering almost the entire cost... so perhaps the addition was appropriate.</p>
<p>I keep hearing about ED kids already accepted at schools months ago still having their apps out there...am I the only one who would have had my DD withdraw her apps...it really bothers me.</p>
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I keep hearing about ED kids already accepted at schools months ago still having their apps out there...am I the only one who would have had my DD withdraw her apps...it really bothers me.
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</p>
<p>Bothers me, too. Those kids must really be treating it as a "game" - to see how many acceptances they can rack up. Just another way the system, IMO, doesn't seem to work terribly well.</p>
<p>The HSs & kids are supposed to have the aps withdrawn as soon as kids are accepted ED. Our HS does this, as does the other large private HS in our state. If the HS doesn't do this, the HS gets a bad rep among the colleges & it affects the kids at the HS. It's nasty that folks don't follow the rules & hurt others.</p>
<p>Sly, I tried to post this late last night but the system was down for Admin work: The explanation is that the colleges have a fairly good idea of what their yield will be. A shrewdly calculated percentage of "thanks but no thanks" letters are expected when they make their offers of admission. Schools as diverse as UCLA and Smith have been burned for housing space, etc., when a class returned slightly more, "Yes, I'm coming!" letters than they had anticipated.</p>
<p>Ah. Mikekemac and DianeR have now said essentially the same thing. Never mind.</p>
<p>Even with EA, we encouraged our son to withdraw all aps once he was absolutely sure he wanted to attend. Why possibly take up a space that you clearly don't want, just to build your ego, when you could conceivably bump someone else to a waitlist/rejection.</p>