Downward Trend???

<p>Reading through this forum, I've noticed that an upward trend seems to be crucial for getting in to tough schools. I'm just curious how much a downward trend could hurt me in the admissions process. After Freshman and Sophomore year, I had a 4.0 uw with 4 honors and 2 AP's. I'm now in my junior year, and it is certain that this number will drop substantially. My school has changed its grading system that is much harder to maintain a high gpa on, and I am taking 4 AP's and one honors class. AP US history in particular is killing me. If I continue at the rate I'm at, I'll probably end with a 3.5-3.6 for this year. Will this make getting in to top school unlikely, or will the fact I'm taking hard courses and my school changed its grading justify the drop in gpa?</p>

<p>Nothing will justify the drop for top schools. They expect your classes to get harder and you to continue to get As. And whatever your school did, it will be about rank-how you perform when compared to your peers.</p>

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<p>No, no, no! For the really tough schools, what’s crucial is having high grades from the get-go. There are posters on College Confidential who talk about an upward trend as if it’s some kind of Holy Grail. They’re talking nonsense. An upward trend is better than a downward trend, and it’s much better than starting with low grades and keeping them low, but it’s not as if you should tank your freshman year in order to have an upward trend.</p>

<p>Now, to your situation specifically.</p>

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<p>Probably this fact will come out in the school profile that your school will send to colleges along with your transcript and your Secondary School Report. If the school profile doesn’t make this fact clear, then your guidance counselor should do so in the letter that goes with the Secondary School Report. In fact, if a change in the school’s grading policies really is the explanation for a drop in your GPA, you should make sure that either your school profile or your guidance counselor addresses this point specifically.</p>

<p>Probably, you’ll have an opportunity to meet with your gc and discuss your college search and applications after he or she is mostly finished dealing with the current seniors’ college applications. Make sure you (and your parents, if your school works this way; my kids’ school does) have such a meeting, and be sure that you address this issue in the meeting. You can say something like, “I know my GPA took a hit in junior year, but I think it was mostly because of the change in the grading policy. Will the school profile reflect the fact that the grading system changed? Or can you be sure to mention this fact in the secondary school report?”</p>

<p>(cross-posted with Waverly)</p>

<p>Thanks for the replies. Waverly, my school doesn’t rank, so I don’t know how my gpa will compare to my peers. Sikorsky, thanks for the long reply. The change in the grading system is definitely the reason for the drop - if it had remained the same, we’re looking at a ~3.85. The guidance counselors at my school are very accommodating and it should be no problem getting them to mention the new grading system. And while I know such a drop will definitely hurt me at ivies and comparable schools like mit, cal tech, stanford, etc…, how will it affect my chances at 2nd tier schools like michigan, carnegie mellon, NYU, etc…?</p>

<p>MP, even schools that don’t rank give colleges enough grade distribution info to know where you rank.</p>

<p>Even with a counselors’s explanation a downward trend will still look bad. And an unfortunate consequence of the counselor’s explanation will be the inference that your freshman and sophomre 4.0 was the result of a lenient grading system.</p>