Drastic change between my transcript grades and my predicted grades

Hi, I’m an international student applying to a few T20s to the US this year.
I am a full IB Diploma student. In IB year 1, I scored 31 out of 42. But after that, I started focusing on academics a lot more and recently got a predicted grade of 39/42.
Will this make up for my bad junior year?

It is hard to predict admissions at top US universities. On the most part, the top 20 universities in the US, and pretty much all US universities that meed “full need” for international students, expect you to be a strong student for all four years of high school. Some might ignore your freshman year. I am not aware of any that would ignore your junior year of high school.

You probably could find some pretty good universities in the US who would admit you based on strong final grades. However, whether you could find any that would offer financial aid is an entirely different question. Also, they probably would not be “top 20”.

One school that I am not sure about is Toronto. The university of Toronto is highly ranked and academically very strong (and very difficult), but is also very large compared to the population of the country it is in. I am not sure whether you have a chance there but if I were you I might be tempted to either apply or at least ask their admissions department for an opinion.

An upward trend is considered better than a downward one, of course. However, when talking about T20’s, you’re up against candidates with four strong, consistently high grade years. Also, predicted grades are not the same as a proven record of good grades, which is why junior year is so important. If you are in need of considerable financial aid, unfortunately your odds are very, very slim.

You can still take your shot, though. There is a lot you haven’t mentioned such as SAT scores, extracurricular activities, awards, letters of recommendation, etc. and admission is holistic. However, make sure to apply to match and likely schools especially in your own country, and keep in mind there are plenty of non-T20 schools in the US that would be happy to have you, although the financial aid may not meet your full need.

Thank you. I actually posed two “What Are My Chances?”. If you could have a look at that and give feedback, that would be fantastic.

The schools are going to consider the grades on your transcript, not your predicted grades. If you want them to consider the higher scores you predict you will get, you’ll have to wait until you earn those. You could apply for the following admissions pool (take a gap year).

The use of predicted grades are fairly uncommon here in the US. Most college admissions readers will focus instead on the grades from the 2 most previous years of high school.

As others point out, the competition at the top colleges within the international pool is fierce.

Fair enough, but I’d still disagree with the discarding of predicted grades here. I spoke to the admissions director of a Top 4 Liberal Arts College and I was told that more emphasis would be laid upon my senior year or predicted grades.

If that’s what you were told, why ask us? Obviously each school can do what it wants, and it one has told you they will put more emphasis on your predicted grades, then you have your answer.

There are different ways a committee might predict your grades. Like assuming senior year is similar to junior year, for example.

I didn’t mean it in that way man. Obviously I’m here to ask for advice on how colleges look at improvement. This debate became one about transcript Vs predicteds that’s why I said this. But thank you anyway

The school predicts grades and sends it

Not every US college will look at predicted grades in the same way. There was an article that I read recently that lamented the poor correlation in predicted A levels vs actual. But it looks like at least one college will pay attention to it.

They do like to see improvement. But not sure if improvement from last year to this year’s predicted will be enough to move the needle. You might have a better chance applying next year once the final A level marks are back.

Yeah I will. I’ve emailed a few admissions officers to really understand that process, after I saw your comment. Will get back to you once I receive a reply

Based on this web page, there are 21 Indian nationals attending Harvard College. http://www.hio.harvard.edu/statistics. Making some reasonable assumptions about yield, it means Harvard accepts 5-6 applicants from India each year. In another thread you were targeting some of the most selective colleges in the US, including Harvard. Yes, showing an upward trend in grades is a positive, but you are competing for extremely limited spots with applicants who have consistently excelled.

Actually, the use of predicted grades is a big old “it depends.”

Yes, US colleges will almost universally disregard predicted grades from students at US high schools because US teachers historically have been really inaccurate with their predictions. Depending upon the international country, predicted grades will carry weight. But we don;t know the OP’s country, so the guessing is moot.

But to give my opinion on the OP’s question. Will the predicted grades carry weight? Yes. Will improvement be noted? Yes. Will Y1 marks be disregarded? No. Is there a magic formula on the weighting of Y1 marks vs. Y2 predicted?No.

More to the point, admissions to a T20 encompasses far more things than just grades, none of which have been shared.

Thank you. I’ve actually posted a discussion on “What Are My Chances?”. If you could have a look at the thread, and the comment for further context, that would be great. Would love some feedback there too. Thank you

Yes I agree with that. But I’m an Indian national, but I study in a different country. Will that make a difference? Or will I only be admitted based on my nationality?

Your application will be viewed in the context of your school/region, not your citizenship. While your nationality may(and I emphasize “may”) play a small part, it’s akin to a pimple on an elephant’s butt. Just being an international applicant diminishes your chances.