<p>This is an interesting site to look at that uses real results…</p>
<p>college dot mychances dot net</p>
<p>Go to colleges and then cross-admit comparisons.</p>
<p>According to this site , Duke wins 56% of the cross-admits against UPenn (although not enough data to show statistically significant, so the 95% confidence interval is huge at 39.0% to 72.3%) , 77% vs. Cornell (with a lot more data; 95% confidence interval is 67.0% to 86.4%), 37% vs. Brown (again, not enough data really…), 24% vs. Columbia (with enough data).</p>
<p>In any event, here’s a quick list of schools and the percentage of students Duke “wins” in cross-admit battles according to the site (using student provided data), with an asterisk indicating not enough data to show a statistical difference at the 95% confidence level and bolding the ones that are statistically different:</p>
<p>Duke’s success rate in cross-admit battles vs. other top 20 USN&WR ranked schools:
Wash U: 87%
Northwestern: 83%
Emory: 80%
Cornell: 77%
Johns Hopkins: 76%
Vanderbilt: 75%
Georgetown: 73%<a href=“not%20technically%20top%2020%20according%20to%20USN&WR,%20but%20gets%20a%20high%20yield%20percentage%20and%20great%20students%20based%20on%20GPA/SAT%20to%20matriculate”>/B</a>
Rice: 73%
Notre Dame: 72%
Chicago: 67%
UPenn - 56%
Dartmouth: 40%
Princeton: 40%*
Cal Tech: 40%*
Brown: 37%*
MIT: 33%
Stanford: 24%
**Columbia: 24%<a href=“I%20think%20this%20doesn’t%20include%20Fu%20as%20they%20keep%20different%20stats%20that%20aren’t%20as%20impressive”>/B</a>
Yale: 16%
Harvard: 11%</p>
<p>So, if you believe that (which honestly I think it’s relatively accurate, Duke clearly beats Cornell and clearly loses to HYSM + Columbia. And there’s not enough data to say it definitively beats or loses to UPenn, Dartmouth, Princeton, Cal Tech, and Brown. (I’m fairly certain it loses to Princeton, Brown, and CalTech while being competitive with UPenn and Dartmouth). So, with this in mind, I’ve calculated Duke as between #9 and #12 in revealed preference for schools in the Top 20. Seems reasonable to me. 19, on the other hand, is a bit low.</p>