EA acceptance/deferral for OOS

After going through the results thread from last year, I have become very nervous about an occurrence I noticed. A lot of Out-Of-State students with great credentials were deferred while those with more average stats were accepted. I understand that many of these deferrals may have been caused as a result insufficient extracurriculars and leadership roles. However, I doubt that this would be the reason for the HUGE numbers of deferrals last year.

As an OOS applicant with higher than average stats, this has made me really nervous. Can I expect this trend to continue this year?

I have really good extracurriculars and have recommendations from a Ga Tech professor, my stat teacher who is a michigan alum, I’ve visited twice in 4 years, but no hook.

If it is clear from your application and school counselor that Michigan is your first choice and that you will attend if admitted, your chances are solid. But in many cases, students with higher than average stats (all A and A+ grades, 8+ AP classes, SAT/ACT score of 2300/35 or better etc
) apply to Michigan as their second or even third choice EA/ED school. If that is the vibe the applicant gives off, deferral is very likely.

@Alexandre If I were to be deferred, what do you suggest I do to show intent on attending?

I would write an email to the admissions officer responsible for your area, reiterating your interest in Michigan, and updating her/him on your accomplishment this year. I would send that email only once your school has submitted your midyear report.

This exact thing happened to my daughter last fall. Others in her (OOS) high school with much lower stats than hers were admitted. All of the lower-stat admits were legacies, including siblings of current students. After the deferral (which my D was VERY upset about), her guidance counselor picked up the phone and told the UMich admissions people that she would attend if admitted. A few weeks later she got in.

My daughter was one of those lower stat kids and it was absolutely true. The school guidance counsellor said it was the kids who usually got deferred( but eventually got in) that got an EA acceptance. And that many higher stat kids who once would have gotten in EA were deferred.

And when we went for a visit in February while many kids were still deferred many of the kids who got in EA who were on our tour talked about how they got in while their higher stat friends didn’t.

@maya54 Thanks a lot for responding.
@brantly I actually just talked to my counselor yesterday about her potentially contacting the umich admissions office and expressing my interest in attending if admitted. She said that she would be open to doing so once I confirm. Do you think it would be beneficial to go ahead and have my counselor contact the admissions office this week before EA decisions come out? Or would it only be impactful in the scenario that I get deferred?

Merely expressing your interest won’t help. But guaranteeing that you will attend if admitted will, although it would have been better had she done so a couple of weeks ago. It is getting late.

While it may seem that Michigan defers all high stat applicants, it is not so. I think part of this perception is a result of Michigan’s increased selectivity in recent years. A mere 6-7 years ago, Michigan admitted 50% of OOS applicants, and the mid 50% ACT/SAT ranges for enrolling Freshmen was roughly 27-31/1230-1430. Last year, Michigan admitted 20% of OOS applicants, and the mid 50% ACT/SAT for enrolling freshmen was 30-34/1300-1500. In other words, Michigan has gone from being a target (even safety in some cases) for high stat OOS applicants to being a reach for all OOS applicants
but as far as applicants are concerned, Michigan is still that good old reliable safety/target.

The EA class will be no different from the RD class. Michigan will not only admit the best applicants from the EA class. They will admit a broad range of students in order to ensure that those admitted actually want to enroll.

As such, there will be some students with 3.6-3.7 GPAs and ACT/SAT scores in the 27-30/1800-2000 range who will be admitted, and there will be just as many students with 4.0 GPAs and 34-35/2250-2400 ACT/SAT scores who will also be admitted. The vast majority will have 3.8-3.9 GPAs and ACT/SAT ranges in the 30-34/2000-2300 range. By that reckoning, you will also have far more applicants from all those sub-categories who will be deferred because currently, Michigan is only admitting 15%-20% of EA applicants and deferring most of the remaining applicants.

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@Alexandre, what do you recommend for the high stats OOS applicant who is very interested in Michigan but whose decision will depend, in part, on whether she receives any merit scholarships from UM and/or her other schools? At this point, she can’t truthfully say “I will attend if admitted.” But she doesn’t want them to see her stats and assume that she is using UM as a safety. She has visited UM, talked with the rep when he visited her school, and emailed with fall awards that were received after she submitted her application. She had 2 people look at her “Why UM?” essay, and both thought it was very well done. I’m getting nervous because several people have wrongly assumed that she wants to attend an Ivy (she isn’t even applying to any). Her stats/ECs are 2380 SAT, 4.0 uw GPA, 1/378 at USNWR top high school, National Merit SF, National AP Scholar (5’s on 9 exams), university research experience, club and high school sports and probably over 300 hours of service to homeless, immigrants, and special ed. groups. Is there something else she should do to convey her strong interest in Michigan?

@asbwjn There are other ways to couch it, without saying she will definitely attend if admitted.
-Michigan is my first-choice school (for these reasons . . .)
-Michigan is a top choice for me.
-Michigan is a number-one choice.
-Michigan is at the top of my list.
-Michigan is the most competitive school I’ve applied to and is my top choice.
-Michigan is the school I want to attend, if I am admitted and it is affordable.

@tarun5629 I agree with @Alexandre that you would have to tell your GC that you will DEFiNITLEY attend if admitted. The GCs have to remain trustworthy to the admissions officers. Do it ASAP. It would help if GC were able to provide reasons why you would definitely attend (your sister goes there, you’ve visited three times and love it, you love their top-ranked anthropology program, etc.).

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While it has become increasingly more difficult for OOS applicants to get accepted to Michigan, it overstates matters to say that Michigan is a “reach for all OOS applicants.”

"As defined by the Princeton Review, a ‘reach school’ is considered a long-shot for students because their academic credentials ‘fall below the school’s range for the average freshman.’”* According to the Michigan website, the Michigan entering class of 2015 had an average 3.85 GPA and a mid-50% range of 30-34 on the ACT and 2040 to 2280 on the SAT.** Hence, Michigan, by definition, is not a reach school for any applicant who has academic credentials that fall within that range.

To be sure, this range may be somewhat higher for OOS students. Moreover, being a top-tier applicant does not guarantee admission at Michigan any more than it does at Berkeley or Virginia. Like many schools, Michigan sensibly protects its yield; thus, others have noted how it apparently deferred many top EA applicants last year for fear they might not enroll. Even apart from yield concerns, admission can be as much a crap shoot for OOS applicants at Michigan as it is for OOS applicants at other top public universities.

The fact that Michigan is not a reach school for every OOS applicant does not diminish its academic standing. In my view, this observation applies to all top-tier public universities in America.

I am not correlating selectivity with quality or reputation espenser. I never have. Even when Michigan’s acceptance rate was over 50%, and its SAT/ACT ranges lower, it was still regarded as one of the top universities in the nation. But the Princeton Review’s statement is overly simplistic. According to its definition, if a student has a 4.0 GPA and a 32 on the ACT or a 2150 on the SAT, Harvard and Stanford aren’t reaches since the applicant’s range does not fall below their range. That’s simply not true. As a rule, a university with an admit rate below 25% is a reach, regardless of the applicant’s credentials. For OOS applicants, Michigan’s admit rate us under 25%.

Princeton review is using one of definition criteria purely by admission statistics. While here, the admission rate is considered as well. For instance, when people say Stanford or MIT are reaches for anybody. For sure that even include those with scores above the 75th percentile, not just those below the admission range. For the majority of schools that have admission rates above 30% or so, Princeton reviews definition applies. AS for UMich, the current OOS admission rate is at 20%. Many applicants with scores above 75th percentile may still have less than 50% chance to get in. Nevertheless, I don’t think it is a reach for all OOS applicants yet except for Ross pre-admit. It is going in that direction though.

Again, the fact that Michigan is a reach for many OOS applicants does not mean it is a reach for all OOS applicants.

Lest you think otherwise, consider the common understanding that a reach school is one where an applicant has a 20 percent chance of admission. Thus, if Michigan has about a 25 percent admit rate for OOS applicants, doesn’t it follow that some OOS applicants will have greater than 20 percent chance of admission? If so, how can we classify these applicants as reaches? And why do extremely knowledgeable and up-to-date college counsellors routinely rate Michigan as a target or even a safety for their students? Am I alone in having this experience?

I understand the arguments about Stanford and Harvard. But do they draw an apt statistical analogy when Stanford and Harvard have uber-competitive 5% admit rates that make them many times more difficult to get into than Michigan? If not, do these arguments downplay the considerable differences that exist between candidates arising from factors such as hooked status, demonstrated interest, academic qualifications, extracurricular achievements, etc.? If so, isn’t it better to simply say that Michigan is increasingly becoming a reach school for many applicants?

Good luck to the OP and the prospective class of 2020!

espenser, the overall acceptance rate is 25%. The OOS acceptance rate is under 20%. So I suppose schools like Cornell, Penn and Northwestern are targets for some applicants as well? After all, their class profiles are identical to that of OOS Michigan students.

Thanks for your well wishes @espenser

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I agree with espencer. It is not a reach for all OOS. If you have very high stats, I think you have much better odds as Mich is less into the “other” parts of the app.

HRSMom, who told you Michigan is less into the "other parts of the app? I do not think that is the case at all. From what I have seen, Michigan is far more likely to look for fit than they are to care about test scores. Essays, demonstrated interest, ECs, and most important of all, curriculum and unweighed GPA are used to determine an applicant’s desirability. Maybe I am wrong, but I think OOS applicants who could count on Michigan as a solid target in 2012 or 2013 can no longer afford to do so. The last 3 years have changed drastically and should continue to do so. Last year, Michigan received approximately 40,000 OOS applicants and admitted fewer than 8,000 of them. This year, assuming the trend of the last 5 years persists, Michigan should received 42,000-45,000 OOS applicants and admit fewer than 8,000 of those again.

I suppose it depends on one’s definition of “reach” and “target”. To me, reach means less than a third chance of admission while a target is roughly a 50% chance of admission. Obviously, a very well rounded applicant with near perfect grades (over 3.9 unweighed), tough curriculum (challenging IB diploma courses, 4 A Level in the British curriculum, 8+ APs in the US system etc
), excellent ECs (high level commitment and performance in one or two activities with demonstrated leadership), very strong essays that demonstrate a keen understanding of Michigan and a good fit with the University and strong test scores (at least a 2200 on the SAT and 33 on the ACT) will have a better than a one third chance of admission. But such applicants come few and far in between. Most high state applicants will excel in two or three of the criteria but will fall short on others, making Michigan a less than likely candidate for admission.