<p>I thought it was time to start a thread for those of you who maybe weren't the stars at your high school, didn't attended an elite summer performing arts camp, don't have a 1970 on your SAT or a 3.7 GPA and who's parents might find paying for college a very difficult task. </p>
<p>You might consider yourself an average or just above average student and maybe have a limited resume. But you are dying to perform and can't imagine doing anything else with your life. You have a "fire in the belly", as one of my parents says.</p>
<p>I know that reading this board can be daunting for many of you because you have told me so. There is so much information and you can get overwhelmed. Many of you are doubting yourself and feel don't have the goods to get into a terrific program.
Believe me, there is a place for each and every one of you and YOU WILL SHINE! </p>
<p>Please take a minute to read what Dr. John posted on another thread about "numbers" . I have pasted it here. </p>
<p>And any time you want to talk, you can email me or PM me. I will be glad to help in any way I can.</p>
<p>EACH OF YOU ARE SPECIAL!</p>
<p>Numbers
As we approach the week of the Unified Auditions, Ive been musing about numbers. Ive written about this before, but not in the detail Im about to present.</p>
<p>It is true that the top schools take a very small percentage of applicants, in some cases less than 5%. Thats especially true for women. Last year, for example, we auditioned 151 women for MT at Otterbein. We made initial offers to 4. Thats 2.65%. One turned us down. We eventually accepted two from the waiting list. So thats 6 offers to 151 women, or 3.97%. Daunting. Scary, even.</p>
<p>But, as Ive said before, the laws of physics dictate that even the most talented students cant enroll in two schools at the same time. Lets see what that means.</p>
<p>There are 30 schools for which collegeconfidential.com has created individual threads. Lets just deal with those, and not the remaining 92 on the Big List. From my reading, it appears that the average number of students accepted into those 30 MT programs is around 20. Were at the low end of the scale at 8; CAP 21 is at the high end with 60. That means that there are 30x20 or 600 spaces for MT majors at the 30 schools. 600 is a whole lot more than 8.</p>
<p>CCM, CMU and Tisch report that they audition between 700-1000 students. But that doesnt mean that they collectively see 3000 students. With cross-applications, its probably more like 1500. My guess is that the 30 schools are seeing around 1800 students total for their 600 spaces. 600/1800 = 1/3. Not bad odds.</p>
<p>We have to modify this a bit for gender. Our statistics show that 67% of our MT applicants are women. Lets assume thats the pattern across the country. So of the 1800 students who are auditioning for MT at the 30 schools, my guess is that 2/3, or 1200, are women. Theyre auditioning for half the slots, or 300. 300/1200 = ¼. Thats 25%. Not quite as good as 33%, but much better than 3%.</p>
<p>If my analysis is anywhere close to being right, women have something close to a one-in-four chance of being admitted, eventually, to one of 30 schools. I say eventually because the top 10% of students are going to receive the first-round offers. But they cannot choose more than one school. So eventually 300 of the 1200 women will be placed in one of the 30 schools.</p>
<p>If you look at the Big List, and make similar assumptions about the entire group of 122 schools, they have 122x20 = 2440 spaces for MT students. I think that means that there are spaces for everyone who really wants to do Musical Theatre. I find that a hopeful thought as I approach the audition season. I hope you will too.</p>
<p>My very best wishes to everyone. See you soon.</p>