Early Decision and the College Crap Shoot

<p>Looking all of the "stats" of college applicants to top tier schools, and who gets in and does not, it seems more and more to me that it is a huge "crap shoot" where people get in these days. It also appears from looking at Parchment and talking to college advisors that applying ED can make a big difference in where you get in, especially at the small/mid-sized LACs we're focusing on.</p>

<p>If you apply ED at a school where you have a decent chance, you of course avoid the "lottery" - but if you apply ED at a school where you have a remote chance, and you don't get in, then you might not get into a school as good as the one where you would have applied ED. Seriously only 12% of Stanford ED candidates are accepted, but at some of the good LACs the number is as high as 50%.</p>

<p>We are <em>completely</em> indifferent to which school as long as it's decent - we haven't fallen in love with anywhere. That clearly would make the decision easier, but it's not happening. Although cost matters, it is not driving the situation. Assume no hooks.</p>

<p>Wondering what the proper thing to do here is. I'd hate to get into a decent LAC but miss out on the lottery, but if you overshoot on ED, you might not end up anywhere decent. I'm thinking you apply ED to an LAC which is a slight reach but not a huge reach. If Unigo/Prowler have 3 LACs where you are at 20%, 40% and 60%, you apply ED to the 40% school.</p>

<p>My D2 did not apply ED anywhere last year. She was accepted everyplace she applied – U of Chicago, Swarthmore, Carleton, Harvey Mudd, Kenyon, Lawrence, Mt. Holyoke, and Macalester (merit aid at several). My advice is to not get caught in the ED ‘trap’ of thinking your kid MUST apply ED to get in. Unless your kid has an extremely strong focus on ONE school as “the only school” and you do not need to compare financial aid packages or compete for merit aid, I don’t think she should apply ED. My advice instead is to look for a rolling admission school or two, and maybe an EA school or two as well. Having an early acceptance takes off some pressure in the spring.</p>

<p>One thing we found is that going back for accepted student days in April really helped my kids winnow down their top choices in a way that ‘day visits’ prior to that had not. They were a little clearer eyed about what they wanted as senior year drew to a close, and were able to compare/contrast more easily among the schools that wanted them. And the full 24 hours on campus with other accepted students and the schools trying to put their best foot forward (believe me, sometimes they did not!) was really, really helpful to see. If my kids had applied ED to what they THOUGHT their top choices were in October/November, they both would have applied ED to schools that in retrospect would not have fit them as well as the schools they ended up choosing and attending. We also see a posts out here sometimes in the spring about students who apply ED, go to accepted student days for the experience, and come away not so sure they did the right thing. And we see a LOT of students who go to accepted student visits and it scrambles the priority list they thought they had going in.</p>

<p>If your kid does manage to get in ED to a school that is a stretch for them, there is also a risk that they will struggle academically against stronger peers who were accepted in the RD pool. </p>

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<p>My advice is to stop worrying about “decent”. Built a solid list of safety, match, and reach schools for you kid that she thinks she would want to attend. Go through the application process, and then choose among the schools that accept her. Neither of my kids ended up attending the highest ranked school they were admitted to. One graduated Phi Beta Kappa, had her senior thesis nominated as one of the top 60 in the country in her area of study, and got a great job after graduation. The other is thriving at her college of choice, and very happy she didn’t go with the higher ranked schools she thought she might want when applying.</p>

<p>Those high ED acceptance numbers you see at LACs are not as high as you think. Many, if not most, of those acceptances are athletes and the like with hooks. Take away those acceptances and then the ED acceptance rate for the non-hooked is much closer to the regular decision acceptance rate.</p>

<p>I wonder what “decent” means to you. Do what intparent suggests and build that solid list of safeties, matches, and reaches. Good luck.</p>

<p>ED is really not that complicated. If a school is your first choice and you know you will go there if accepted, do it. Even if it is just a marginal amount, it will help your chances of being accepted.</p>

<p>D just went the whole LAC ED process, and will be attending one this fall. We (her parents) went through the process with her, and we all learned a lot along the way. Many myths were dissipated, of which there are many out there, and some truths revealed that are not so pretty. But there is a good school for you at the end of the rainbow.</p>

<p>First off, our search process started during late sophomore year. We really had no intention of looking for a LAC, we had no idea about them, didn’t really know which schools were good or bad, didn’t know the advantages or disadvantages of them over larger schools, but chance brought us there, they really suited D, who wants to be pre-med, so that’s where we concentrated our search - along with a few smaller national universities.</p>

<p>We quickly found one school that would always remain near the top of D’s list, it was always in the Top 3. Others schools came and went, but by this time last year, we really only had one top choice and felt we needed a few more strong candidates. So we took what we already knew, planned a summer tour, combined it with some interviews that we knew she wanted to do, and off we went. Part of the problem with touring in summer is there are few students on campus, but we met enough at each place that we got a pretty good feel for each school. But we did hit one school that had looked pretty good on paper, we had scheduled an interview based on the paper stats, and it quickly shot to the top of D’s list. So now we had two really strong candidates, the question was, which one would become the ED school.</p>

<p>Without naming the schools, they are both Top 15 LACs, and both NESCAC. The are nearly identical in size, each has certain advantages and disadvantages over the other, so it was really, really close. Fortunately, both offer ED1 and ED2, so we would get another shot if the first didn’t pan out. We don’t qualify for financial aid, so that wasn’t going to be an issue. School GC, who’s got contacts at both of these schools and can prescreen D through admissions, advised us the D would have a good shot at either, though both have under a 30% acceptance rate, one substantially under. So the problem was, which school would be ED1 and which one ED2? Basically, we had a #1 school and a #1A school. We went around and weighed the options, but by the end of summer, we had them slotted. Basically, the higher ranked school got the #1 slot, the school that she would have a slightly easier time getting in took the #2 slot - but that was only part of the reasoning behind the choices.</p>

<p>Then we found out we had competition, and not in a necessarily good way. No one from D’s HS has gone to either of these schools in quite a few years. And the schools have been begging the GC to send candidates. All of a sudden, we have multiple people wanting to go - and apply ED. And some are recruited athletes. Academically, D has solid credentials, so in that regard, she really did have the academic edge. But these are small schools, and getting multiple candidates in ED is fairly rare for any HS. But we were locked in and decided to go for it. We had a list of other schools that were also strong candidates, including one EA school. No real safeties, as if absolutely nothing came through, which we thought rather unlikely, we still had the state flagship available until late in the spring, though it wasn’t exactly desirable. We had a total of 10 schools were were looking at.</p>

<p>Decision Day ED1 - Drum roll please - and it’s a deferral. It was not a happy household. And to make matters worse, the recruited athlete got in - someone with really weak academic credentials. (I’m still waiting to see their actual numbers on Naviance. D has no knowledge of him ever taking an AP class, and our school offers over 20.) So for all the talk about School #1 being an academic powerhouse, that really doesn’t apply if you’re good with a ball. And that’s when I started looking into how ED really works, especially at LACs in general, and NESCACs in particular.</p>

<p>Because LACs are small, athletic recruiting can overwhelm the ED system. And the ED system is the primary way of locking in athletes. I’ve run the numbers, and it appears that about half of all ED slots are used specifically for athletes - so that’s why the numbers appear to be much more favorable than RD - athletes are told to apply ED or you won’t get a slot. Our GC was kind enough to tell us that several recruited athletes, without naming names, who were being recruited were told apply ED or lose your spot. They wouldn’t commit, so the schools moved on. After a lot of investigation and calculation, I came to the conclusion that ED provides a slight, but not insignificant advantage to regular applicants, but not one that is large as it appears if you just look at the raw numbers.</p>

<p>So deferred from #1, the question then was what to do - not apply ED2 and still take a shot at #1, or just move on. And in the mean time, we did get some good news in getting an acceptance from the EA school with a nice scholarship attached, but not so nice as to deter us from the ED2 school. So we had a floor. Our GC was nice enough to work his contacts at ED1, who after getting past all the happy talk, was basically told that the admissions committee saw no compelling reason to admit D ED, so given the competitiveness of this year’s admissions, and his knowledge of how applications were going, told us that if we’d be happy with ED2, to go ahead and do it, as it would be a really good idea if we wanted any advantage at getting into a tough school to get into. So we did, along with an additional 5 schools RD in a moment of panic, for a total 15 schools applied to.</p>

<p>As it turns out, D did get into her ED2 school, and is very happy about it. Our HS got two students in there ED, one athlete ED1, who is a strong student, and D in ED2, a rare accomplishment for any HS. And they will be joined by one additional student from the HS, for a total of three, the first students to attend the school in over 10 years. Go figure the sudden popularity. No additional students beyond the recruited athlete got in the ED1 school.</p>

<p>So, lessons learned:</p>

<ol>
<li>ED to LACs is not as advantageous as it appears in the raw numbers, but it is an advantage.</li>
<li>Be really committed to going if you apply ED. As happy as D was to get in, she did have some second thoughts before attending the Accepted Students Day. She’s not the type of kids to easily make a decision, so ED in that sense helped, as I can just imagine having her having to choose between five schools she was actually accepted to - but be really sure you want to go before applying.</li>
<li>Apply somewhere EA or rolling admissions. You’ll want that high of an acceptance if ED1 turns you down. It really helped ease the disappointment, even if it wasn’t a school high on the list.</li>
<li>Realize that some people have easier routes to get in ED than you do. (Not just athletics either - legacies and developmentals are often admitted that way as well at some schools.) It isn’t fair, and the schools don’t advertise it, but it is what it is.</li>
<li>Absolutely use ED to apply to your top realistic pick, by which I mean you aren’t completely unqualified. ED is not such an advantage that it’ll get you in if you aren’t qualified. You need to be above the 25% line to have a realistic shot if you don’t have something else going for you.</li>
<li>You, the parent might be indifferent about schools, but your student is not - trust me. Never apply ED blind, I can’t imagine putting my child through that. Even a summer visit will help, as the way you are treated by just the kids giving the tour and the admissions staff can tell you a lot about a school. If you student is uneasy about a school, even all schools, forego ED, you really don’t want the hell of trying to find a way out of your commitment.</li>
</ol>

<p>I am trying to sort out how much being a legacy affects things. I have heard at some schools if you are a legacy and you don’t apply early action, you may torpedo your chances of admission. Not so clear to me about ED. Opinions?</p>

<p>@MrMom62 That was a very informative post. I’m glad your D was able to get into one of her top choices.</p>

<p>The rules for legacy status vary from school to school. For example, it’s well known that to use legacy status for Penn, you need to apply EA/ED (I don’t remember which they use.) Other schools, different rules apply.</p>

<p>You didn’t mention money in the original post, but note that ED students rarely receive merit aid. The school has no incentive to “sweeten” the offer for a student who has committed to attend if accepted. So you may end up paying more than you would have if your student was accepted in the RD pool (assuming the college offers merit aid).</p>

<p>Wow these posts are very informative and thank you for taking the time. I guess I keep getting these e-mails from the Michelle Hernandez website about how you should really try to focus on a school and apply ED or you will be shut out later. Plus it seemed to make a big difference in the Parchment website. Also his school college counselor said it would make a big difference at the LACs if he went that route.</p>

<p>I actually like the EA option - we will probably pick one and just go for it - and then if that happens it will take the pressure off and then we won’t have to apply to the 20 schools on the list that we currently have. Then I guess it will all be left to fate. Fortunately he really likes his safety school and says he would be very happy going there so even if disaster strikes we should be okay.</p>

<p>Most of the schools on the list do not offer Merit aid but some of them offer significant music scholarship merit so even though we don’t qualify for financial aid it would be nice to get something.</p>

<p>As far as Legacy plus ED, yes that is something we are looking at, but my S did not particularly like either of the schools that me and my wife went to and specifically said he did not want to apply to them ED. I went to an Ivy and my wife went to an LAC and they did nothing for me and he got the royal treatment at her LAC, but it didn’t seem to phase him. I don’t see him falling in love with any of these schools at this point, so maybe we will blanket the schools and see what happens, maybe the decision will be made for him.</p>

<p>I would not rely on Parchment AT ALL. It is not a statistically valid sample – I think students plug in what they WISH would happen pretty often, and don’t come back and update what really happened on a consistent basis. Do not use that as any kind of guideline on your chances. Just for curiosity I checked for my D last year who got in everyplace – her chances at two of her schools were 16% per Parchment, and she got into both in the RD cycle. It can be sort of fun, but in a parlor trick kind of way. It is NOT reliable.</p>

<p>20 schools is a ton of application unless you are in California (one application for lots of state schools there). Your S will have too many supplements to write to do a good job, and a very hard time figuring out what to do in a short time in April if he has a lot of acceptance (too little time to many accepted student visits). Plus, if you are applying for need based aid, 20 schools is a nightmare. Every school has different requirements, their own special twist on the forms, different requirements for what forms they want, and different ways to send the forms. Seriously… we applied for need based aid to 5 schools last year (figured 3 would give enough merit aid that need based aid would be irrelevant for us), and just 5 was a huge headache. Even if they take the “standard” iDoc process, iDoc is the pickiest, most manual, paper-intensive process known to man (can you tell how fond I am of iDoc?).</p>

<p>What you need to do is make a more focused list of schools starting with safeties. Almost sure to get into, you know you can afford, and he would be willing to attend if it comes down to it. A couple of these if you can find them. Then 4-5 matches – schools where his stats fall in the 50-75% range and you think you will be able to afford them. And throw in a couple of reaches. But focusing his list takes time – a copy of the Fiske Guide to Colleges is a good start. I find Fiske to be quite accurate – you have to read between the lines a bit, but I find that a careful reading does reveal the pros and cons of the colleges listed. And visit where you can before application time. Even a summer visit is better than no visit.</p>

<p>Then when he has acceptances, plan accepted student visits to his top 2-3 schools.</p>

<p>Trust me – you will all hate each other and the college process if he just sends scattershot applications to 20 schools without real forethought, and his odds of ending up at a school where he will be happy will not be any better.</p>

<p>If you tell us what state you live in, his proposed major, stats, cost constraints, size preference, and geographic preference, and also your current list of 20 schools, you likely will get some very helpful comments that might help you winnow a few off the list.</p>

<p>So we looked at the Early Action schools, and the only ones on his list were ones where his chances are extremely low anyway. We weren’t even going to apply to them unless his SATs went through the roof. Seems like a huge waste.</p>

<p>As far as the 20 schools - 4 of the schools on his list don’t even require supplements. As far as the others, the supplements do not seem that onerous, except for a couple. I’m sure we will be down to 12-15 by the time we actually sit down in September. Two of them are very shaky right now.</p>

<p>Thank you intparent for the advice on Parchment, I didn’t realize that.</p>

<p>Since you are applying to a LAC, I’ll throw out these books and guides as what I used and found the most useful, in no particular order.</p>

<p>Fiske Guide - Mentioned above, quite useful.
Princeton Review Best 378 Colleges - Complements Fiske without covering schools in exactly the same way.
The Hidden Ivies - Very detailed reviews of many if not most of the top LACs. Now about five years old, still useful in getting the flavor of each school. You will learn something by just leafing through this book, as there is no way you are familiar with every school this book lists in this much detail.
The Gatekeepers - A classic that is now about 15 years old, it covers in great detail everything that goes into the admission process from the inside at Wesleyan - so imply that to mean this is how most of the upper tier LACs and many of the Ivies operate, only ramp it up, as it’s now much more competitive.
Crazy U - Fairly recent book that explains why things are the way they are. Written by a WSJ writer getting his son into college - ultimately UVa, though he never tells you that.
Perfect Score Project - Recently read this, it’s more use if you’ve got more time to get your kid ready for the SAT/ACT. But it helps explain the test prep industry and why your scores are kind of stuck in most cases. You can move them, but only with at least a year of prep, and then the right kind of prep.</p>

<p>Don’t apply somewhere EA/ED!!! Fight the system!</p>

<p>I applied to my fifth choice (UChicago) EA because my brother goes there and I thought I had a good shot. Long story short, I was deferred and then rejected. My brother was rejected to his top choice (Stanford) EA, as his application really wasn’t ready. After being deferred from UChicago, I spent all of winter break revising my common app essay and the other supplements, so that they were amazing pieces. I ended up being accepted to all three of my top choices (Yale, Columbia, and Stanford). If they want you, you’ll get in regardless of whether you apply early or RD. And they’re more likely to want you if you apply RD because your applications will be better. (Though I would recommend applying to a school you don’t really want to go to EA, just to “field” your application.)</p>

<p>And I’ll add, since you’re applying to LACs, I also got into Williams, Amherst, Pomona, Haverford, and Davidson RD. At these schools, the % accepted ED is so high because almost all of them are athletic recruits. (And the same is true for almost every school, really with the exception of Cornell and Penn because they’re so large).</p>

<p>I think we’re dealing here with advice to a mere human, not to an immortal god, like yourself.</p>

<p>I would add the “Colleges That Change Lives” consortium, for some match and safe schools. My son applied to several under non-binding Early Action (usually with a free application), and had some acceptances with generous scholarships under his belt by Christmas. I’d recommend this even more strenuously if you decide to apply ED to a reach - it will ease some of the pain of a rejection/deferral, as well as the stress of adding loads of new applications. Most colleges are “decent;” many are excellent. Do not feel pressured to seek Early Decision if you are not certain about a school and your ability to afford it. </p>

<p>@tanboyrunfast does bring out a good point, I think. Both my kids “polished” their applications some as they went along. Upon the 50th re-reading of their common app essay, some ideas for tightening it up and improving it emerged. And some additional items occurred to add to the activity list, etc. Both ended up with a few versions of the Common App as they went along. So the ED school app may not be the strongest your student can put together. But @tanboyrunfast, my D2 did get in EA to U of Chicago… so it can be done. :slight_smile: </p>

<p>Really? I can’t imagine the common app essay really making a huge difference in this process. As long as you don’t sound like a jerk or a loser, don’t have any typos or grammatical errors, and don’t share your innermost personal problems, I think it’s mostly like the interview, a way to screen for the crazies. That’s the message we keep hearing during our informational sessions during our college visits.</p>

<p>The essays, especially the supplemental essays, are way more important than the interview at top schools. (Assuming there is a supplemental essay.) Not every student will have an interview, and they tend to be more informative in both directions than substantial. But the essay can be decisive - it tells a college “Why us?” and “Why you?”. Are you just filling this out to fill it out, or have you really researched us - and are you serious about coming here? Without the essays, you just have a formula school where they plug your numbers into a computer and it spits out the answer.</p>

<p>What schools are you looking at? That would give us a clue as advise you how the admission process works at those schools and what they’ll be looking for. </p>

<p>Indeed, essays are important for top schools where most candidates are highly qualified. Some schools like UIUC pay a lot of attention on the essay and do not accept recommendation letters. For supplemental essays for each school, you may need to put in more school specific information in the essay to show your interest.
Finally, do not apply ED simply thinking you may have a higher chance. Ask yourself if this is your top choice of school you want to go and is affordable to you first. Then check with your credential against the admission stat to see if you are at least near their admission average or not. If you are below their admission average, you’d better spend time to improve your stat and apply RD.</p>