I could have written your post-- VERY similar, though we’;re a year out still, but will be facing the same decisions. My advice (who knows if my D1 will follow it)—
a.) see if a true #1 emerges
b.) apply to “most likely” ED acceptance. I see you have already looked at ED acceptance rates. Others’ comments about fit is also relevant though.
c.) if NOT accepted consider ED2 at one of the others.
I can also see the wisdom of applying ED1 to the most competitive and ED2 (if needed) to the “most likely”. But if you get in at ED1 you’re DONE. ED2 you still have to complete apps to all the schools on your list.
Please let us know what you decide and if comfortable, which 4 schools!