Yeah, I wouldn’t look at other apps from the high school either. D19 got into her #1 choice ED1, so did two other kids from her school, while a few were rejected. On paper some of the rejected kids had a better application than she did.
Agree with someone’s comment above about the individual kid too. Mine was so happy to be done with everything by mid-December when ED decisions came out, but it was easy for her t be happy as her ED choice was a clear #1 and there wouldn’t be any “what if’s”. I always worry about buyer’s remorse in a strategy of EDing to the best odds if it’s not a clear number one as well.
And for D19’s school, this past year was also odd in that one college (ivy) that usually takes 8-10 people from her school only took one, while another that had taken just one in the last 5 years took 3 kids this year. So I also wouldn’t base a strategy on what a college “usually” does.