Good point and note of caution, @northwesty . In this particular instance, it’s not that clear cut.
With regard to Colleges B and C, this is neither a kid who is at the 60th percentile+ in standardized test scores (though in GPA probably yes!) nor at the 25th percentile, but rather in between. There are some other interesting factors at play at College B, too.
In any case, I 100% agree with you that she will almost certainly bloom where planted…and that would include not just Colleges A-D that are on her current “possible ED” list, but also colleges E-H, which are on her RD list if the ED doesn’t work out, and probably Colleges I, J, K, or L which she doesn’t currently think she is applying to but could easily fall in love with. (She is trying to keep her total app number reasonable, and her school does have an absolute cap of 12. Her current list is 8 or 9.) Every now and then she throws a total wild card into the mix, e.g., St. John’s College in Annapolis and Santa Fe with its Great Books program. My daughter can easily imagine herself loving that too!