@garland My comments have been in reference to need-based aid. And families who need aid really do need to compare options. A difference of $5000 for year 1 is going to be $20K over the course of 4 years, so not insignificant.
And here is the problem that comes up again and again. A family believes that they can pay, say, $20K a year for college. If a college comes in with aid that is under that point – great. But the reality is that the family is often faced with a situation of no college hitting that target.
So let’s say they went ED based on an NPC estimate that turns out to be a few thousand off. Instead of $20K, first year costs are going to be $25K. That’s above their threshold – but not so far above that its impossible. (That is, $40K would definitely be off the table).
So the family can turn down 1st choice school at $25K… — but what if the offers in the spring are worse?
Let’s say, a choice between 3 schools at $27K, $28K, $29K. OK, $27K is the new best offer – but the student can’t go back to their first choice – they’ve already declined that.
On the other hand, what if the family decides to bite the bullet and go ahead with the $25K offer.
But maybe if they had waited until spring, the offers would end up as $17K, $19K, $23K, an RD offer from the would-be ED school of $25K.
Now its obvious they would have better options if they had waited
And there’s more – let’s assume that these are all peer schools. Any of the higher cost schools can be asked to review their award in light of the award from a competing school. No guarantee – but very often colleges sweeten the pot in those circumstances.
These numbers aren’t fantasy – they are very close to the kind of numbers I saw with my daughter.
And I definitely can tell you in hindsight, these things can make a big difference.
I think that there is a difference between want and need, and families who fall into a real “need” category will have hard choices to make, but are always going to be better off with full information. If the need is real, then the desire for a particular college or particular type of college is almost always going to give way to financial considerations. “Need” does not have to be dire in order to be genuine – but my point is that the choices the family faces when considering +/- $5K or $10K a year isn’t just foregoing a vacation or eating out less frequently.