<p>I don't think you are "foolish" to encourage your daughter to apply ED, just misguided.</p>
<p>Misguided because from your post it is clear that (a) while there is a favorite college, your daughter has others that she might be happy with, and (b) your financial situation is not absolutely certain. </p>
<p>So the real question for you is not whether ED will increase your daughter's "chances" - but whether you want to force your daughter to make an irrevocable choice of colleges in November, or give her the opportunity to continue to explore options until the end of April.</p>
<p>The one thing you know for sure is that ED decreases the range of choice.</p>
<p>Your daughter has a front-runner in her preference list, but it is highly unlikely that she really knows enough about each college to be sure that those preferences will not change over the next several months as she gets to know more about each college, and as she starts to think more deeply about what she wants from a college education. </p>
<p>ED is valuable for students who are absolutely certain that they want one school above all others, and parents who are absolutely certain they can pay. Your post seems to take you out of that category.</p>
<p>I agree with jmmom - the admit rate stats really don't tell the whole story. The problem is that the pool of students may be very different. You may not really be doubling your child's chances, but instead just nudging her into the same applicant pool with a lot of for-sure admits (legacies & athletes). </p>
<p>Just to be clear - I sympathize with you. My daughter has given me a list of 15 colleges now on her list, divided into 3 levels based on preference. The top level includes an Ivy with an ED admit rate twice that of RD. So basically, waiting to apply RD reduces her chances from "extremely unlikely" to "virtually impossible." There is a tremendous parental temptation to want to give my daughter the best shot possible and tell her to go for it.</p>
<p>But I can look at the list of schools my daughter is looking at and see something else very important: she really hasn't made up her mind what she wants. (Her list also includes Tulane & Wellesley -- this is a kid who is toying in her mind with some very different models of what college entails). So I can see that what my kid really needs, on a deep, personal level, is MORE TIME. So there is a conflict within me as well, but the voice of wisdom is saying ...."love thy safety"</p>