ED to Duke or Dartmouth?

LET ME BE CLEAR, I know both Duke and Dartmouth are extreme reach schools in my case, but it can’t hurt to apply and I’ll always wonder what could have been if I don’t apply. That being said, I am trying to decide if I should apply ED to Duke or Dartmouth. I HAVE LEGACY AT DUKE BUT NOT AT DARTMOUTH. However, I believe I would fit much better at Dartmouth than Duke but my chances of getting into Dartmouth ED are very slim. And if I don’t apply ED to Duke, it is almost guaranteed I will not get in. Due to my legacy, my chances of getting into Duke ED are better than my chances of getting into Dartmouth ED. And I would still be quite happy at Duke, however, if I get a binding acceptance, it would kill to me to think about what it would be like if I applied ED to Dartmouth.

SUMMARY:
WHAT ARE MY CHANCES OF GETTING INTO DARTMOUTH EARLY DECISION?

Objective:

SAT I (breakdown): 1510 (760 math, 750 literature)

SAT II: 800 Math 2, 730 Literature

Unweighted GPA (out of 4.0): 3.88
AP (place score in parenthesis): Biology, Chemistry, Calc AB, Statistics (Didn’t take AP exams)
Senior Year Course Load: AP English, AP Calc BC, AP Comp Sci Principles, AP Gov/Econ, Choir, Lacrosse/Soccer
Major Awards (USAMO, Intel etc.): Disney Dreamers Academy 2017, Presidents Award for 100 hours community service, Certificate of Recognition for helping my community achieve the Helen Putnam Award

Subjective:

Extracurriculars (place leadership in parenthesis): Varsity Soccer, Varsity Lacrosse (Captain), Club Lacrosse A-Team, Investors Club (President), FBLA Chapter (Founder and President), Water Conservation Club (Founder and President), NHS, Tri-M Music Community, Chamber Choir (Tenor Section Leader), Male A Capella Group, Church Youth Group, Small Business Owner
Job/Work Experience: Summer Internship with my city’s finance department
Volunteer/Community service: AYSO Youth Referee, Special Olympics Soccer Referee, Athlete on Athlete tutoring, Director of Social Media for local non-profit
Summer Activities: Summer School, Travel, Internship with the Finance Department of my City
Essays: 8/10
Teacher Recommendation: 7/10 (From my freshman/sophomore english teacher, and my junior english teacher)
Counselor Rec: 6/10 generic
Additional Rec: 9/10 from my school districts superintendent
8/10 from my city treasurer
Interview: probably will be good

Other

State (if domestic applicant):California
Country (if international applicant): USA
Intended major(s): economics
School Type: competitive public
Ethnicity: Asian
Gender: Male
Income Bracket: > $200k
Hook: Legacy at Duke (my dad went there, class of 81)

Reflection
Strengths & Weaknesses: My SAT score and GPA are not very good and I’m not sure about my extracurriculars. I would say my application is just average

Being a legacy won’t improve your chances significantly unless your parents donate a lot of money to Duke. You have good scores and grades, but then again, Duke and Dartmouth will be reaches for everyone. Duke’s ED acceptance rate is almost triple their RD acceptance rate: 24% compared to RD’s 9%. That being said, you seem to be really passionate about Dartmouth. Duke isn’t a downgrade from Dartmouth, but if you think there will be a lingering regret, you should go for Dartmouth. I am sure you will get into other great schools if you don’t end up getting into Dartmouth and Duke

@DukeDreams I dont see why you are convinced you cannot get into Dartmouth ED or Duke RD. You have good scores and grades and an overall strong profile. You have decent chances at both schools both ED and RD. Yes you will prob have a slight boost at Duke but imo it is not worth it if you will sorely regret it afterwards and also because you are competitive for Dartmouth ED to begin with.

@DukeDreams I agree with @Penn95 and think you would be a strong candidate at either school. Score are certainly in line; perhaps you could try to raise your GPA in first semester senior year. ECs are solid (captain of team, president of clubs, etc). What I would suggest is to focus your attention on essays and recommendations. If you want to make your application stand out (ie not be “just average” as you describe), that opportunity comes in the form of essays and recs. There the AO gets the chance to learn who you are, not just what your profile is. Recs that you rank as 6 or 7 (hopefully you are being conservative or modest) will not help you stand out. Many applicants to Dartmouth or Duke will have similar academic profile, so the recs and essays will probably set you apart from everyone else. Good luck!

Let me give a different view-point. It is challenging for any Asian (male) to get into any of the top 15 schools. There are a lot of positives in your profile, but one can look at potential problems – for example, I don’t know why you didn’t take AP exams, probably there are others in your school with lot more APs and thus higher weighted GPA (you haven’t listed your class rank).

If Duke is a school you can be happy at, I will apply ED there and maximize chances of getting into a top school. You may also want to check if Duke gives legacy preference in RD – some schools like UPenn give preference in ED only. If this is the case, and I or my child were in your position, I will apply ED to Duke.

@osuprof I think all of the ED top schools give legacy preference primarily in ED. legacies might be given a extra read during RD but have never heard of a top school placing legacy preference during RD.

Like the posters above, I am not sure why you are so convinced you cannot get into Dartmouth. Moreover, why are you resigned to an application that is “just average”? You have half the summer and the entire fall to make your application NOT average. You can write meaningful essays, retake tests, think carefully about how to craft your application and tie together all the various elements, and figure out how to present yourself in a way that distinguishes you from the masses of other high-achieving applicants. Easier said than done, I know. But it’s about more than just a list of GPA, test scores and a ECs. Good luck!