Effects of affluent URM in elite transfer admissions

I am URM, as is one of my friends at university who is applying to transfer, and we had a disagreement the other day about how beneficial this may or may not be on elite transfer applications.

She argues that, as a half South American (Argentinian), her odds of success at transferring to extremely selective Ivy Leauges and equivalent schools are practically tripled. She has no cultural/ethnic community involvement, is very affluent (paying for college out of pocket, isn’t applying for financial aid) and isn’t planning on writing any essays about her heritage. She thinks that the college just want another URM to increase their diversity numbers regardless of the other factors.

I on the other hand, think this URM designation won’t do her or I much, if anything at all, because at the level of HYPSM etc., the quantity of qualified URM’s and the VERY VERY few transfer spots make it not a huge consideration unless Mexican/Puerto Rican, and clearly disadvantaged and engaged in their ethnic community. Even then, it’s nowhere close to a guarantee.

So who is right? And is the answer any different from the same situation for freshman admissions?

None of that will magically make her a better candidate.

As the demographic data for transfer students are not reported by colleges, I would argue that being a URM would in itself have no effect on admissions.
Transfer students need a compelling reason to leave their current school.