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<p>If every HS junior (or better, every member of that age cohort) in every state took the PSAT, the difference in National Merit PSAT qualifying scores by state might be meaningful. But that is not the case; participation varies widely by state, and by school district within each state, and by demographic group within each school district. So we have varying qualifying scores based on standard percentages of test-takers in each state, but varying percentages and distributions of test-takers in each state under widely varying policies. For example, is the test mandatory or optional, and who pays the fee–the state, the local school district, or the student/parent? Do HS sophomores take the test as “prep” for the National Merit qualifying administration of the same test in the sophomore year? And what is the level of prior knowledge and awareness, and how much information and instruction is given, concerning the role that this particular test plays in the National Merit scholarship competition (or even what the National Merit scholarship competition is), and as prep for the SAT? Etc., etc. </p>
<p>Not surprisingly, the states with the highest NMS qualifying scores are SAT-dominant states with large numbers of affluent households, i.e., those states most attuned to the entire SAT/College Board system.</p>
<p>And by the way, I doubt the high National Merit qualifying score in DC is indicative of a high level of educational attainment in District schools relative to country as a whole. More likely it’s a reflection of a small and non-representative sample size, i.e., the only people who take the PSAT in the District are the college-bound sons and daughters of affluent, college-educated parents. Take a standard percentage of that small and unrepresentative sample, and you’ll end up with a high National Merit qualifying score. But for the most part, District schools are plagued by high dropout rates and low educational achievement rates, just like other urban core school districts.</p>