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<p>I’d urge you to do the math for a few states. I think you’d find that your suspicion is wrong. Not that there wouldn’t be a handful of schools that are out whack, but for the most part the numbers seem to add up. I’ve actually done this for the state of Michigan, and the numbers actually make sense. The University of Michigan gets about 30% of the top 10%-ers in the state. Michigan State gets about 15%. Grand Valley State gets about 6%. The other 10 public universities get something on the order of 1 to 2 percent each. Private colleges and universities in the state get generally less than 1% of the top 10% in the state except the University of Detroit Mercy which is about 1.2%. Ivies get about 1.5% of the top 10%-ers in the state of Michigan, and other top-25 private universities combined get about 3%. Out-of-state publics get almost none, and non-elite out-of-state privates get even fewer. It all adds up: top 2 public flagships just under half, other publics combined another 1/4; and the remaining 1/4 are divided among in-state and out-of-state privates, out-of-state publics, community colleges, and probably a handful of top 10%-ers who don’t go to college at all.</p>
<p>Xiggi would have you believe that the University of Michigan’s claimed haul is not credible because it’s so high. But the thing is, you can’t account for where all those students are going if they’re not going to the University of Michigan. </p>
<p>And Michigan’s numbers are very consistent with other state flagships. Here’s a sampling, based on 1) CDS-reported percentages of freshmen in the top 10% for class entering in 2010, 2) US Dept of Education figures on numbers of in-state students enrolled as freshmen in 2010, and 3) state Dept of Education reports on numbers of HS graduates in 2010 (assuming 10% are in the top 10% of their class). This roufh calculation assumes the school’s percentage of in-state students in the top 10% matches its overall rate in the top 10%; this is probably not the case at a school like Alabama, which lures a lot of top OOS students with large merit awards, or Michigan, which attracts large numbers of OOS student and where OOS admissions standards are widely believed to be higher for OOS than for in-state students. At those schools, then, the percentage of in-state student in the top 10% is probably somewhat overstated in my calculation.</p>
<p>Percent of state’s top 10%-ers enrolled as freshment in 2010:</p>
<p>University of Washington 52.7%
University of Nebraska 37.7%
University of Alabama 31.4% (plus Auburn 24.6% = combined 56.0%)
University of Wisconsin 30.0% (adding Wisconsinites attending the University of Minnesota-Twin Cities where they get in-state tuition rates, you get 44.5%)
University of Georgia 23.7% (plus Georgia Tech 16.6% = combined 40.2%)
University of Minnesota 22.8% (adding Minnesotans attending the University of Wisconsin-Madison where they get in-state tuition rates, you get 29.1%)
UVA 22% (plus VaTech 17.9%, plus William & Mary 9.6% = combined 49.5%)
University of Texas-Austin 18.4% (plus Texas A& M 14.8% = combined 33.2%)
UC Berkeley 7.3% (combined with UCLA 9.6% = 16.9%; but then, it’s an enormous state).</p>
<p>It’s much lower in some states, of course, especially were there’s a lot of competition of quality private institutions.</p>
<p>I find all these figures credible. Where the heck is a top-10% student in Nebraska going to go, if not to the University of Nebraska-Lincoln? Smaller numbers will end up at the University of Nebraska-Omaha or University of Nebraska-Kearney; a few will end up at Creighton, a pretty decent private college in Omaha. A smattering will end up at lesser in-state schools, and a tiny fraction will leave the state. The pattern is pretty similar for most states where the public flagship is seen as the best college or university in the state. (In this regard, notice the difference between Minnesota and Wisconsin, two states that in most respects are like peas in a pod; but Minnesota has some top quality LACs like Carleton, Macalester, and St. Olaf that make Minnesota students much more cognizant of private options, not only in-state but out-of state; and in fact the number of Minnesotan going to elite out-of-state colleges and universities is much larger than the number of Wisconsinites doing the same, despite very similar state populations).</p>