Explanation of Percentiles

Parents Forum
1

I apologize ahead of time for what will be a really dumb question to most of you, but would someone please explain what those 25/75 percentiles actually mean in regards to college admissions? if the 25th percentile is 1150 and the 75th is 1430, for example does this mean 25% had less than 1150? And 25 % had more than 1430?

What’s confusing me is that some top tier schools have lower ranges that are actually quite realistic, which implies not every student has a 1600 SAT who is admitted. Does a student, who scores near the lower percentile range, actually have a chance of acceptance?

Again, I know this will seem like a very dumb question but I’m very new to this college process, as I didn’t go thru it myself.

2

You got it correct. Students SAT scores the 25-75%ile score were between 1150-1430.

Students in the top quarter were above 1430.

Lowest quarter below 1150.

Many of the bottom quarter students have other things on their applications that make them rise to the accepted student level…legacy status at some schools, developmental admits (those are families who have donated a LOT of money to the college), athletes, or some other thing that is truly a “hook”…like being an Olympic medal winner, or the offspring of a very famous person, or the like.

3

Thank you for explaining this to me.
Are there any studies done on how the students with lower scores actually do in school once admitted? Seems it might be had to compete scholastically if you’re in a room full of students who were in the 75th percentile range.

4

You understand correctly. And that is why it is ridiculous when people post chance threads and a fellow student or parent tells them they have no chance with their SAT or ACT score. One never knows. Admissions are holistic. Yes, a student in the lowest quartile will need something else that is really compelling in their application-- an impressive talent, achievement, recommendation, or background, or having some quality the school is seeking that is under-represented in the applicant pool at higher score levels.

5

You are interpreting the percentages correctly. The 25 to 75 percentile is telling you where 50% of the matriculated (in most cases) class falls. However, students at the lower end of the range or below the range have a lower chance of admissions. Also, many, if not most, of the students at the lower end are likely athletic recruits, children of major donors/famous/powerful people, or they are incredibly spikey (e.g. winner of some major national award/recognition, could be in science, literature, music) who may fall a bit short in other academic areas.

A good way to triangulate probabilities for “normal” applicants is to look at the Common Data Set for the schools you are interested in. Here is a link to Princeton. https://registrar.princeton.edu/university_enrollment_sta/CDS_2016-2017.pdf. If you scroll down to Section C, you will see a lot of information on the characteristics of freshmen admissions, providing some detail beyond the 25-75 percentiles. Princeton (and some other schools) on its website also breaks down the admissions rate of various SAT and ACT ranges and GPA ranges. https://admission.princeton.edu/how-apply/admission-statistics. You can see that the admissions rates for the higher ranges are significantly higher than the lower ranges, although even at the highest ranges, the admissions rate is still in single digits. That is why highly selective schools like Princeton are a reach for any student, even ones with perfect academic stats.

6

You are correct that in the example you cited 25% of students (can’t remember if it’s admitted students or only enrolled first year students, but it will say on the common data set) scored less than 1150 and 75 % scored better than 1430. Many will look at that middle 50%, i.e. 1150 to 1430, as the range that tells you whether you are in the ballpark for admissions. When you also consider the school’s admission rate, it gives you a general idea of whether a school is a safety, a match or a reach for you. For example, lets say you have a 1450 at a school where the middle 50% scores 1150 to 1400 and the admit rate is 75%. That puts you in the top 25% of students at a school with a high admit rate. That school is probably a safety for you. Then let’s take your 1450 and say you want to apply to a school where the middle 50% scores 1350 to 1480 and the admit rate is 35%. That puts you on the higher side of the middle 50% of students at a school that is somewhat selective. That school is probably a low reach for you, some might say high match. And then there are schools with very low admit rates that are reaches for everyone, regardless of where your scores fall, just by virtue of how selective they are. People differ on what percentage makes a school a reach for everyone, but I tend to put the percentage as anything under 25%. That’s all very simplistic, because there are usually a whole lot of other factors that go into admissions, particularly at more selective schools. But it just gives you a general idea.

7

My younger son was in the top 25%ile for CR and bottom 25% for math at his college. He did not take a lot of math and science in college, but he did fine in the courses he did take. Anyway, point is, some of the kids may like my son have lopsided scores.

8

Thank you for your posts everyone!

9

@Mimi2018
In regard to your question about how kids do once admitted:
You do not need the highest possible score on the SAT/ACT to succeed at a top college. First, even the lower end of the score ranges are still way above national averages. Second, scores are an imperfect measure, as not everyone tests well, and colleges also look at high school course rigor, GPA, etc. But most importantly, top colleges will not admit someone they think will not be able to handle the work. Retention and graduation rates are a point of pride for them. It is common for colleges to say things to admitted freshmen like, “No one is here as a fluke. We don’t make mistakes on who we admit… only on who we don’t. You are here because you deserve to be.”
Finally, there are ample support services for students at top colleges. These schools are invested in their students’ success.
So yes, a student in the bottom quartile needs some other compelling aspect of their application to get into a top college, just because there are so many other strong applicants. But once they get in, they should be fine!

10

Ok, so I think I’m getting it…if a student falls within that 50%range, then that’s pretty good, better the closer they are to 75% range? But if the school has a lower admit range, then 75% might still not be enough? Yikes!

11

Thank you TheGreyKing!
Math mom-My D does very well on the EBRW portion of the test (780), not so well on math (640) She’s going to work hard to, raise her score, but clearly strong math skills don’t run in the family. Not sure how the imbalance will impact acceptances, although she wants to apply to art programs, so maybe admissions will take that into account.

12

GreyKing-D was accepted to a top dance program, and what you describe sounds similar to that experience. She was scared she wouldn’t be able to handle the rigors of the program. The program administrator told her what you said in your post: “You wouldn’t have been accepted if we didn’t believe you could handle it!” at the end of the first week, she told me half the kids in her class reported feeling the same way she did. I’ll remind her of this when we discuss whether or not she should take the risk and apply to her reach school.
Thanks so much for your insights, everyone. Like I said in my OP, I never went thru this process, so it’s a bit confusing at times knowing and understanding all the terminology and processes.

13

Your math logic is failing. If a school admits 75% of all applicants, 25% of the students it admits will have test scores in the lowest 25%. If a school admit only 10% of all applicants… 25% of the students it admits will have test scores in the lowest 25%.

The overall admit rate doesn’t mean that one needs scores in the top 25% of the appilcant pool to get in. What it does mean is that at more selective schools, the bar is raised even at the bottom.

In other words, it’s not that the applicant to elites needs to have test scores in the top 75%. It’s just that at that level, the deliniation for bottom 25% is significantly higher. If anything, the more selective the college, the less significant the top 75% marker is, because as the score band narrows, it becomes less of a distinguishing factor – and the top colleges have enough high stat applicants that they can afford to focus more attention on other factors.

Some more points:

  1. 25% is a big fraction. It is one out of every 4 students fits that category. That's a significant number of admitted students. If you want to know the true "minimum" test score to apply -- the "don't bother" number, you need to dig down into the Common Data Sets (when available) and pay attention to the point at which numbers fall below 5%.
  2. SAT/ACT scores are not the sole admission criteria, nor are they the primary criteria for the most selective schools. They just are the easiest metric to quantify. But high school course breadth & rigor, high school GPA and class rank are far more important to most colleges, Despite all the talk about hooked applicants, it's a pretty good bet that the students who have lower end test scores will usually be coming in with higher GPA's. Because the ad com is looking at the whole picture.
  3. Colleges need a wide variety of students, with a variety of academic interests and abilities, as well as different talents and outside interests. But they only need so many of each. So you could also predict that the students with the lower end test scores might have demonstrated abilities or interests in less popular majors. Students are essentially competing for admissions within their own niche -- there aren't stats available for that, but the admission expectations are going to be different depending on the student. Colleges always say that they look at scores "in context" and part of the context is whether the score fits the student. For example,arts and humanities majors with weaker math scores get admitted all the time.
  4. From the point of view of the college, their own overall statistical range is important, but not the individual student scores. So the ad coms do keep an eye on their admit stats as they make decisions -- but not just score range. They are looking at everything -- their financial aid numbers, their regional and gender balance, their racial diversity numbers, etc. And they will keep their overall numbers in mind in terms of admission priorities, so the impact on the individual admission depends on how the overall process is going. If the colleges have already admitted plenty of students with high test scores, then there will be less concern than in the situation where the ad coms have been informed that their numbers are running low and they need to boost them.

My daughter’s test scores put her in the bottom quartile of the reach schools that admitted her, including the one that she attended. She got into all but one of the reach schools she applied to. No accident – she had a strong GPA, an unusual and somewhat interesting path through school, a very lopsided high school record with unusual strengths in a an area likely to be valued by the specific reach schools she targeted. So her admissions just means that we did a pretty good job of targeting , including aiming for schools with more holistic admissions policies. (Several schools that might have even been considered “matches” were dropped from consideration because they seemed to place higher emphasis on test scores).

Almost everyone my daughter met at her school had much, much higher test scores – and at first, that seemed to be a major topic of conversation.

It was a few weeks into the first semester that my daughter commented to me something along the lines of being amazed to discover that so many people with such high scores could be so dull. It’s way too long past for me to remember the exact words she used – but the point is that she figured out fairly quickly that the test scores didn’t have much correlation with academic or intellectual ability. (Though there likely was an inverse correlation between intellect and the desire to boast about one’s test scores). Of course she met many very smart students as well-- it’s just that she also figured out early on that whatever the test scores, she was well within her comfort zone academically.

Daughter graduated summa cum laude, with a college GPA that was even higher than her high school GPA. College was very hard work for her, but the only one she was competing against was herself. If she put in the effort, she got the grades – and most of her friends with higher scores ended up with lower GPA’s because they didn’t put in the effort.

The studies show that high school GPA is more predictive of college GPA than test scores. Colleges know that. A student with high test scores and high GPA is a good bet for admission, but if there is imbalance in GPA and test scores, then the colleges usually will do better to admit the students with the stronger GPA’s.

14

When you look at SAT percentiles, it’s important to notice whether you’re looking at the percentiles of admitted students or enrolled students. The interpretation of the numbers is different for the two groups

15

One thing to keep in mind when reading the CDS, if the school is breaking out SAT percentiles by CR and M, you CANNOT add them together to get a total for that percentile. So if the 25th percentile, in this example, is 550 for CR and 600 for math, the 25th percentile for the total SAT is not 1150. Below is an exercise I shared on another thread for anyone interested.
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/20460743/#Comment_20460743

16

Honestly, I can’t thank you all enough for taking time to answer my OP, and provide me with such helpful information.

Calmom-no truer words have been written! My math logic is clearly failing, which is why I find your detailed response so incredibly useful. I also appreciate you sharing your daughter’s experience. I’m going to have my D read through this thread when she gets home. I know it will be helpful to her, too.

I will take a look at the links to other threads you’ve posted. I’m sure they will be equally informative.

17

For a competitive school, one should look at the upper mid-50 (above admission median) unless you have something on your application really standing out. If your stat is between admission median, your chance would be lower than the admission rate as most of the admitted students with lower stat have hooks or other factors (legacy, athlete recruit, less popular major/school, etc).

18

I had to dig around but I found what I was looking for. A University of California study from 2007 that showed that high school GPA was a better predictor of college grades than were test scores. https://www.fairtest.org/high-school-grades-outperform-sat

When my kids were applying to college, they only applied to colleges in which their SAT’s and high school GPA were in the top quartile for the enrolled students in the previous years (using the Common Data Set – which most admissions offices link on their website). That didn’t guarantee admission, of course. But it meant that they could “contend” for admission based on the intangibles, e.g., EC’s, awards, special abilities (athletics, whatever).

I regarded their skills – as reflected in grades and EC’s and awards/achievements – as more important than test scores alone. In one case, since my child was applying to art schools, it was her portfolio that was most critical to admission; her SAT’s and GPA only demonstrated that she could carry the load academically.

19

That strategy (only applied to colleges in which their SAT’s and high school GPA were in the top quartile for the enrolled students in the previous years ) is a good way to identify schools that are likelies and safeties, but it would tend to screen out a lot of colleges that are matches and reaches where the student has an excellent but not guaranteed chance of admission. No no one can get admitted to a college if they don’t apply. If a kid has very high end stats, then “top 25%” isn’t a problem. But bottom line, every year colleges are going to reliability enroll 75% of their class from students who don’t have stats within the top 25%.

And the OP’s question was, “Does a student, who scores near the lower percentile range, actually have a chance of acceptance?”

And the answer to that question is yes – half of students admitted have scores in the lower half of the score range of the score range of admitted students.

So yes - all students should apply to safeties – but students shouldn’t rule out desired colleges based on scores.

If it was all about scores the admission process could be relegated to a computer algorithm. But it’s about people, not numbers.

20

^ One critical thing you forget is who are those got admitted with the bottom 25% score. It is not a normal distribution pool of applicants or admitted students. The bottom 25% are usually athlete recruits, legacies, or other hooks. Also, many of them apply to the school within the college that has lower admission stat (e.g. Music school).
Applying to a reach school due to low admission rate is one thing, applying to a reach school because of test score or GPA is another thing.