<p>Just finalizing the number of schools to apply to, and was wondering if there is any truth behind trying to calculating odds statistically as follows:</p>
<p>I am applying to top schools, with average admit rates of around 10% give or take. So, if one were to apply to 8 schools, with each one accepting 10% of applicants...Then, the odds of someone being rejected by every single school is .9^8= .43. Which means the odds of getting into atleast 1 is 1-(.9^8)=.57</p>
<p>Now, I know that this is faulty because an individual's chance might not be 10% at each school. Could be 50%, could be 0%. However, more or less, is this an applicable approach to view odds? </p>
<p>57% chance of getting into 1 school just seems way too high, right?</p>
<p>i'm pretty sure this is faulty. take it to the extreme. if you had 1/1000 chance of getting into each school, and you're applying to a thousand of them, would you still feel safe about that? so i guess i'm saying the same thing as wayward_trojan, just from another aspect of the situation. good luck, though :)</p>
<p>Nope. If the odds of getting rejected by every school = .43, then the odds of getting accepted to every school is .57 because the odds of getting both rejected and accepted to every school = 1. Doesn't sound right. Raising to the nth power doesn't work in this case I don't think.</p>
<p>.57 is not the chance of getting into EVERY school, its just the chance of getting into atleast 1. the odds that getting rejected by all doesnt happen</p>
<p>It seems to me that you're making the mistake of assuming that the transfer criteria are considerably different or purely a function of chance. I'd imagine that the only chance that really plays into the issue is based upon the number of transfer students that they can accept this given year, in addition to minor differences in how they weight applicants. Since you stated that you are applying to schools in only one distinct bracket, I would make the argument that by getting rejected by one that has fully reviewed your application material, would in a sense decrease the possibility of your getting accepted into the others, and vice versa. Of course there is always the possibility of a statistical outlier, which would likely be more of a function of something specific about your application catching the eye of an individual at one of the school's transfer departments.</p>
<p>Regardless, you are probably better off calculating in terms X/S where X= the approximate seats that you will get accepted to and S= the cumulative number of seats that you are applying for across the different departments that you are applying to. Of course, this is all coming from a 3.5 student at a community college who hasn't taken statistics, nonetheless I'm pretty certain that the assertion that your formula is flawed is correct.</p>
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However, more or less, is this an applicable approach to view odds?
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</p>
<p>No, it is a faulty approach due to the ASSUMPTION that the statistical calculation is based on, which is that the odds of getting into each school is INDEPENDENT of the others. That's not true as college acceptances are largely based on the same set of criteria (gpa, rigor of coursework, LORs, ECs, etc.). So for a top student, the prediction will be way too low, and for a minimally qualified applicant, it will be too high (as sstory alluded to above^^^).</p>
<p>This is not something that can really be quantified. I think you would have a better chance applying to 1 school that accepts 10% with and amazing application than applying to 8 with an average application. Pick the schools you like most and put the most effort into the apps for them, and then if you have more time, apply to some others you are less interested in. The overall strength of your app at each school is far more important than the number of schools you apply to.</p>
<p>hmmm..... the odds of getting into at least one of the schools is (0.9^7)*0.1=4.7e-2 which, I think, is more accurate b/c each decision is independent of the other (like flipping a coin). That said, as mentioned above, I think you better apply to schools who fit your needs best and not based on statistics.</p>
<p>r they really independent events...seems to me like confounding depending upon your abilities. there is no homogeneous applicant pool from which statistics can be applied in this example. however, if applied an extremely large pool then yes, 57% definitely does make sense.</p>
<p>1) Getting in isn't random; if it were, then the 57% would be reasonable.
2) You will probably get rejected from one school for the same reason you get rejected at another, not truly independent.</p>