The latest in the articles detailing this drop. Price. Alternatives. Lower birth rates and family choices.
https://radio.wosu.org/post/fewer-students-are-going-college-heres-why-matters#stream/0
Interesting.
They don’t touch on this, so maybe it’s not a big factor or too early to assess, but you can learn so much online for free now. Can / should the delivery method change for colleges to remain competitive and relevant?
Learning the basic skills for practicing data science, for example, doesn’t require studying on a campus for a premium price. A person can become relatively skilled for free now. But, can such a person get hired? Interviews in this field can often focus on skills rather than simple dialogue, so it seems there is opportunity for online learners to break into the workforce.
This article has more details on where the decreases are happening. https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltnietzel/2019/12/16/college-enrollment-declines-again-its-down-more-than-two-million-students-in-this-decade/#48cdfc123d95
I don’t think job prospects are all that great for students who take non-degree, online free courses (assume you are talking about MOOCs). Maybe certain skills (e.g., coding) could result in jobs, but not sure that represents big numbers.
More disruptive, IMO, especially in the adult marketplace, is the rapid growth of online degree programs, such as the ones at ASU, Western Governors, Southern New Hampshire, Liberty, etc. There are hundreds of thousands of students enrolled and it’s growing quickly.
In practice, that depends on:
- The person having strong self-motivation to self-educate.
- The skills being testable and/or demonstratable to employers who may consider hiring someone with self-education but no formal degree or other certification.
- The line of work not requiring occupational licensing that requires a formal degree or other certification.
In computing, it is relatively common, since there are people who learn how to write software on their own for fun, and there are various ways to demonstrate skills that do not involve a formal degree or other certification, which is not required to work in the field.
But self-educated people in computing are still relatively uncommon compared to those who studied computer science in college, where the provided curricular structure and assistance of instructors is very helpful for vastly more people than those who can successfully self-educate.
While there are a lot of factors (as the articles detail) most of my colleagues are concerned with the impending demographic cliff. Even with the other issues, we feel that we’re treading water until then. That is going to be the death knell for a lot of colleges, and what keeps most of us up at night.
Thank you @privatebanker for sharing. It feels that the impending demographic cliff is not being seen in the T20 college admissions yet. My guess is not until 2025-26 as fewer babies were born after the 2008 recession.
That’s the target date, but I don’t think it will matter much for T20 college admissions. While applications may drop a bit, you are always going to have schools that do not have to worry about enrollment numbers. Just think about the number of T20 schools that continue to see applications rise each year. It’s those of us outside of that T20 that are already preparing for the cliff. Most strategic plans go out 5-7 years so it’s anticipated.
The charts at https://nscresearchcenter.org/current-term-enrollment-estimates-2019/ go into more detail. A summary of the average change in enrollment by type of college over the past 5 years is below. Note that it’s primarily the for-profit colleges that have seen a drop in enrollment. Private, non-profit colleges had an increase in enrollment.
4-year Private, Non-profit: +0.3%
4-year Public: -0.1%
2-year Public: -2.4%
4-year Private, For-profit: -10.5%
I expect the economy is a key reason for this trend. When HS grads cannot find good work, they are more likely to pursue part time enrollment at for-profit or community colleges. When the economy is strong and HS grads can get decent work, they are less likely to pursue such options in their spare time. In contrast, the types of parents/kids who post on this forum tend to be less influenced by a strong economy. They are likely to attend college in a strong economy, rather than choose to work full time, even if they could find a job. And they are likely to choose one of the college groups that did not see a significant decrease in enrollment, rather than choose a for-profit college or community college.
I think that private for-profit schools have also been disproportionately impacted for various reasons involving closures, fraud, poor placement results, etc.
I doubt top schools will be significantly impacted. Only having 10x the number of applications than what you can accept rather than 15x isn’t going to hurt them.
The lower tier schools that already accept a vast majority of students is where actual enrollments will fall, reducing revenue, resulting in cutbacks, sending many schools into a spiral? Early signs are already appearing and it will get worse.
There’s not really a way around a supply glut and dearth of demand - less competitive colleges just won’t survive.
Interesting read, though I’ve always thought otherwise (an increasing amount of college-bound students); I guess that has a LOT to do with culture.