<p>Can someone help me figure this out? Or is it impossible?</p>
<p>If I remember correctly for Stanford, the acceptance rate for these SAT score are:</p>
<p>800 Writing - 19%
700-790 CR - 11%%
700-790 Math - 9%</p>
<p>And these are basically where all my stats fall with a CR (740) and a Math (780). Any statistical way to find out my chances based on this??? I have at least a 19% chance cause of my 800 in Writing but that's as far as I can get.</p>
<p>Just curious. thank you</p>
<p>No, there is no way to figure it out as many subjective factors exist. And no, you don’t have a 19% chance because you have an 800 writing.</p>
<p>Were you to be able to take this approach, you’d also have to factor in that 50% have a hook, and that half brings down the stats very significantly. Un unhooked candidate is likely to have stats at or above the 75th percentile</p>
<p>You have to take into account causation vs. correlation. It is likely that 19% of kids with an 800 in writing got in because they had other amazing stats, and the 800 in writing was a coincidence, not a reason guaranteeing them at least a 19% chance of acceptance.</p>
<p>You have to be careful about how you interpret the stats. All the Writing acceptance stat you quoted means is that knowing nothing about a collection of students other than their 800 Writing score and whether they got into Stanford, it would turn out that 19% of them did.</p>
<p>That is a population statistic, not an estimate of what will happen to any given member of the group. Its a subtle point. The reason you can’t apply the statistic to a member of a group is due to something called “ecological fallacy”. Predicting for a single member relies on an implicit assumption that what is true of the group is equally true of each member, an assumption that is usually (but not always) wrong. Bad assumption means bad prediction.</p>
<p>Here it boils down to assuming that you, in this case, have the average characteristics of the group of students with a 800 Writing score. Since this is unlikely to be true (assuming we even know what relevant characteristics to measure), then it is not true that your specific chances of admission are 19%.</p>