Financial market impact on Endowments, Financial Aid, Applications, etc.

<p>This is what the Blair Headmaster wrote about economic hard times last summer, and before this rollercoaster stock market <a href="http://www1.blair.edu/Downloads/bulletin/BulletinSummer08.pdf%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www1.blair.edu/Downloads/bulletin/BulletinSummer08.pdf&lt;/a>. See page 3. Does anyone have the NAIS (National Association of Independent Schools) article he references? I am interested in reading it, but I could not find it on their website.</p>

<p>Burb Parent, I don't think this is the article, but it's a recent power point presentation by Patrick Bassett: NAIS</a> - About NAIS - Financial Survivability.</p>

<p>Found it! NAIS</a> - About NAIS - Bassett Blog: The NAIS Affordability Index</p>

<p>Thank you! Both articles were interesting and relevant to this discussion.</p>

<p>Bump! As the board's developing multiple threads on the topic.</p>

<p>It seems very quiet on the Prep School Forum, compared to past years, in terms of the number of new applicants making inquiries. Perhaps that is a sign of level of applicants?</p>

<p>Yes, I agree that this forum is quiet. I think you are right that there are way fewer people applying this year--just less interest at all points for boarding schools.</p>

<p>Now that you mention it, it is much quieter this year than in years past. Looking at last year's threads makes that clear.</p>

<p>We've attended two open houses, and those have had a good turnout. More lookers, but fewer applicants, perhaps?</p>

<p>There have also been more entrants into the "prep admissions" website market and many of those are dedicated solely to prep admissions, rather than an entry low down on the drill of a site named COLLEGE Confidential. It may be that the audience has dispersed a bit.</p>

<p>My current worry is the dollar's strength. As I listed the economic factors that might hurt us this year I held out some hope that the weakness of the dollar might, at least, make US prep schools more attractive to overseas applicants. No more. We've had our first Korean student express concern about making tuition and I fear she won't be the last.</p>

<p>^ she is not the last. my parents are going insane over the price of korean won (up till even JULY, 900 won, which is technically 90 cents to us, was equivalent to a dollar. now it's up to 1,500 for a dollar, and the difference in these costs show TREMENDOUSLY rather than marginally if it was only 1,010 or something of the like)</p>

<p>tuition would thus become, well, insane. </p>

<p>i am actually surprised nobody really posts new inquiries. maybe it is because of the new chance thread, but i rarely see it blinking yellow these days.
i am guessing 20% of korean applicants will withdraw unless some miracle completely overturns this within two months.</p>

<p>(but as for the won, the concern is not actually boarding school. it's college. especially for families that work in the US but get paid in Won, it is extremely straining if there is a child wishing to go to a top-notch college that comes with big bucks. i mean, the ivy league pretty much cut down their prices lower than boarding schools, but i mean ones where tuitions run as high as 60,000, and yes they do exist)</p>

<p>don't worry. japanese people will come rushing in :)</p>

<p>This quote's from an article published on the 17th of October. The article covers colleges, but the principle's the same:</p>

<p>
[quote]
Now, Moody's Investors Service, the bond rater, is projecting endowment returns to be negative for the first time since 2002. In a report Thursday, the ratings agency estimates that college endowment losses averaged 5% to 7% in the year ended June 30. Since then, including spending and stock market losses, Moody's figures colleges experienced another 30% decline in cash and investments.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Crisis</a> Shakes the Foundations of the Ivory Tower - WSJ.com</p>

<p>While it is counter intuitive, I've heard that the schools with large endowments and operating budgets with a large portion coming from endowment income rather than tuition, will have the hardest time -- assuming that enrollments don't fall. </p>

<p>I'll try to make clear examples. Assume that enrollments don't fall. </p>

<p>School A has an endowment of $200 mil, and 50% of the operating budget is supported by endowment income. The remainder comes primarily from tuition and a few other sources. </p>

<p>School B has an endowment of $50 mil, and 15% of the operating budget is supported by endowment income. The remainder comes primarily from tuition and a few other sources.</p>

<p>Assuming that enrollments don't decline (big assumption!), the school that is tuition-dependent will have to make fewer cuts. </p>

<p>One things is certain -- Parents be prepared for annual fund pleas!</p>

<p>I may not be the most authorized to speak on this topic, but I think it's definitely clear that schools are going to have a lot of issues shelling out finaid this year. At my school, it's pretty obvious that we need funds because they put a LOT of investment into our parents' weekend. However, I think with these economic conditions, there will be less demand for admission at these schools, especially amongst those who otherwise wouldn't be able to afford private high school - those on financial aid.</p>

<p>That said, I think the groups that are going to be most hard-hit by the restrictions in endowment are the current students. I don't know how it is at other schools, but at my school your financial aid declines significantly after freshman year, no matter how much your income changes. This is because they want to give a lot in the first year to attract good students - it makes sense, but it's nonetheless irritating.</p>

<p>Anyway, for those of you applying, I would say not to worry about it too much. If you're a good student, you will probably make out well because, due to the potential lack of demand for private high school admissions (caused by economic factors, as mentioned above), the applicant pool will probably be less selective, making you thereby all the more attractive to the school. And if you're dealing with exchange rate issues, my sympathies - no doubt that's going to be a pain, unless you're in China or something (that should stay close to the same because the yen is pegged to the US dollar).</p>

<p>Good luck to all of you applying!</p>

<p>Just thought that some would find these links interesting given the concerns about the USD exchange rates:</p>

<p>Look up historical data for any major currency and see how it has compared against all other major (and many minor) currencies: RatesFX</a> - US dollar, USD, Exchange rate table</p>

<p>Choose any two major currencies and graph their relative positions over time (3-6mos/1yr): RatesFX</a> - Currency exchange rate charts and historical data</p>

<p>My take on what I see: The U.S. dollar's strength has increased by about 20% against many currencies -- which is a big chunk of change for those people who were seduced to enter the BS marketplace by a weak U.S. dollar. The real bad news it that it's not as if this is a "one door shuts and a window opens" situation. The Chinese yuan (which has not been pegged to the USD since 2005, though it's still controlled within a tight range against a basket of global currencies) and the Hong Kong Dollar are about the same and the Japanese yen is stronger...but by 8% or so...and mostly since September, which is not exactly a margin that would be likely to inspire numerous Japanese families to send their students to U.S. boarding schools, certainly not for this admission season. In other words, U.S. buying power within the U.S. has diminished...at the same time that the rest of the world's buying power within the U.S. has diminished. Tuition- and admission-wise, there are no white knights out there at the moment.</p>

<p>Just thought that some would find these links interesting given the concerns about the USD exchange rates:</p>

<p>Look up historical data for any major currency and see how it has compared against all other major (and many minor) currencies: RatesFX</a> - US dollar, USD, Exchange rate table</p>

<p>Choose any two major currencies and graph their relative positions over time (3-6mos/1yr): RatesFX</a> - Currency exchange rate charts and historical data</p>

<p>My take on what I see: The U.S. dollar's strength has increased by about 20% against many currencies -- which is a big chunk of change for those people who were seduced to enter the BS marketplace by a weak U.S. dollar. The real bad news it that it's not as if this is a "one door shuts and a window opens" situation. The Chinese yuan (which has not been pegged to the USD since 2005, though it's still controlled within a tight range against a basket of global currencies) and the Hong Kong Dollar are about the same and the Japanese yen is stronger...but by 8% or so...and mostly since September, which is not exactly a margin that would be likely to inspire numerous Japanese families to send their students to U.S. boarding schools, certainly not for this admission season. In other words, U.S. buying power within the U.S. has diminished...at the same time that the rest of the world's buying power within the U.S. has diminished. Tuition- and admission-wise, there are no white knights out there at the moment.</p>

<p>The family in South Korea and Japan who are applying to US BS are pretty rich and they will send their kids to US BS anyway. Reasonablly good BS schools receive more than 250applicatins from those countries every year. Furthermoe most ofthe BS liimit the internatopnal students ratio at around 10%. So the international students application do not affect US domestic application at all.</p>

<p>Thought I'd share this...</p>

<p>I had someone from the Summer Institute for the Gifted call me yesterday to see if my kids would be interested in their program. When I asked about financial aid I was told that they didn't know yet how much they would have because "the funds come primarily from corporate sponsers like.....um.....uh.....AIG. I don't think we can count on that this year."</p>

<p>Wouldn't it be prudent to assume that the other university sponsored gifted programs like CTY or the one at Duke or U of Chicago would have less aid?</p>

<p>neatoburrito, does the Summer Institute for the Gifted call the families of potential attendees as a matter of course? That is, do they normally need to recruit students?</p>

<p>periwinkle:</p>

<p>I don't know! Good question. </p>

<p>SIG is not a very selective program. I looked at the website and all you need to qualify is a high national or state test or participation in a "gifted" program. It's not a talent search organization like CTY, where you have to take an out-of-level test. </p>

<p>It is a very good question though. You would think that because it's not a terribly selective program they wouldn't need to recruit. My impression was that SIG was for the bright kids who didn't make it into the other "Gifted" camps. Scouting early for full-pays?</p>

<p>The better question is.....where did they get my number??? My son registered for the SAT recently, but he doesn't take it until next month. Do they share/sell info?</p>

<p>
[quote]
Scouting early for full-pays?

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Likely? The evaporation of corporate support for financial aid is a direct loss of previously reliable income for the program. I looked at the program online. That's some price tag for 3 weeks! </p>

<p>It could be that families are deciding that summer academic camps are a luxury.</p>

<p>Info can come from many sources. Have you ever ordered a toy from a "smarter kid" type of catalog? Has your son ever attended an academic extracurricular, for which you paid fees or tuition?</p>