First choice is U of Minnesota-Twin Cities, what are my chances?

I live in Illinois, so I’d be an OOS student.
As a junior, I’ve taken 8 AP classes through my high school career, and every other course excepting health, gym, etc., was an honors course.
However, I did not do so well in my math and science courses; I usually got C’s.
So, at this point, here’s where I stand:
GPA: 3.167(UW)/4.02(W)
ACT: 32
Class rank: Top 19%
Extracurriculars: Scholastic Bowl (3 yrs), swim team (1), and Model UN (1). I’m planning on continuing these my senior year, but I’m applying for Early Decision.
I’m applying to the College of Liberal Arts.