ucbalumnus and MurphyBrown, this is awesome stuff and gives helpful, specific advice and guidance, thank you! Ironically, I just posted some very basic first FA questions on the FA forum, because I don’t want the moderator to get mad at me for pushing an admissions thread too far toward a FA thread and don’t want people looking for admissions advice here to stumble repeatedly into my woefully misplaced FA discussion (my apologies!). So maybe if you have time and interest you can take a look, as you’ve been terrific (and some of what I asked is already referenced in your latest responses, so thank you for anticipating so well!!)
More generally, it turns out we probably don’t need to do many more NPCs to get the most dire of EFCs. Further digging into particular schools awaits my D finishing an initial list, and then there are miles to go before we know what her test scores, GPA after this year, etc. will mean for reaches, matches, safeties, etc. And then using those categories of schools to figure out where she might be able to squeeze out merit aid, if at all. But at bottom my wife and I are going to be expected to pay consequential amounts up to the full price at some institutions if our D wants to go those institutions and gets in, so our worst case at very expensive schools is 100% and no rose-colored glasses are on. Nor am I complaining - it is what it is, and our family has to figure out what is feasible notwithstanding what the colleges tell us is feasible, what is acceptable as against other values and priorities even after figuring out what is feasible, and what going to any particular school is “worth” in so many tangible and intangible ways.
We’ll do our best, just like many of you are or have. Most of all, I very much appreciate that you are willing to share your knowledge and experiences to help us do our best. Thanks.