D1 fell “in love” with Columbia because it met all of her check boxes, but we didn’t analyze enough of her chance (other students with better hooks applying to the school). She was deferred and later rejected. She ended up at Cornell by getting off the WL. It turned out to be the perfect school for her. She absolutely loved her four years later. We were later told the reason she was WL at Cornell was because they didn’t know if she would attend if admitted (her GC was informed of that).
Fast forward 5 years, D2 was trying decide where to ED…I told her it was her one free option and to use it well. She had the stats and ECs to get into Yale, Harvard, Williams, Stanford. We were living overseas, and I had her visit Yale 3 times to see if it would stick. D2 decide to ED at Cornell because she knew her chance at RD would not be as great and more importantly she felt she would be just as happy at Cornell as other “higher ranking schools.” She didn’t want to take the chance of applying to other schools EA/SCEA/ED and miss out on getting into Cornell. She got in and also had very good 4 years. She is now at a grad school of her choice.
There are schools that care about ED, and it is use it or lose it option. I think it is a mistake to ED at a super reach school (hoping for a bump) and trying to get into more of a high reach school during RD.