<p>Goldenboy, not necessarily…it depends on more variables than ranking. If your father went to H and your grandfather went to H you’ll apply to H. If you father went to UofM and your grandfather went to UofM that student may very well not even consider anywhere else. If you want to go to Ross or UofM engineering you may not consider H. The D of a friend who went to “insert elite private school” came back “home” and went to UofM and turned down one of the HYP. So for every example of a kid heck bent on HYP we can probably find an anecdotal example of someone who did not. BUT and this is a big but, most would choose HYP as a prestige thing and many would chose HYP over UofM because the aid is better at HYP for the middle class family who might have to pony up the full cost at UofM and figure they can probably get into UofM for grad school with an HYP undergrad degree.</p>
<p>Well, wouldn’t it be safe to make the same assumption in reverse, that the closer the two schools are in selectivity, the less lop-sided the cross-admit ratio? What you’re really describing is a surrogate marker, one for selectivity. Surrogate markers are often very valuable when the underlying data is either unavailable or confusing.</p>
<p>No, Virginians don’t even apply to top private schools in anywhere near the numbers that Marylanders do. According to U.S. Dept. of Education data, 415 Marylanders enrolled in Ivies as freshmen in the Fall of 2010, compared to 362 Virginians. That may not sound like a big difference until you realize that Virginia’s population is about 40% larger than Maryland’s (8.1 million to 5.8 million). And the disparity grows even larger when you look at all top-25 private schools, which enrolled 1,354 Marylanders and only 1,007 Virginians as freshmen in 2010. So 35% more Marylanders enrolled in top 25 private universities, yet Virginia’s population is 40% larger. If you do the math you’ll see that on a per capita basis, Marylanders were roughly twice as likely to attend top 25 private universities as Virginians were.</p>
<p>Here are the 10 elite private universities enrolling the most Maryland freshmen in 2010: Johns Hopkins (139), Georgetown (103), Cornell (93), CMU (80), Penn (76), WUSTL (70), Wake Forest (70), Princeton (59), Northwestern (48), Stanford (47); 10-school total 785.</p>
<p>And here are the 10 enrolling the most Virginians: Duke (93), Cornell (80), Wake Forest (73), Georgetown (63), Penn (59), Princeton (58), Notre Dame (56), CMU (47), Yale (41), USC (40); 10-school total 610. (Remember, Virginia is 40% larger).</p>
<p>So maybe the high schools are just better in Maryland? Well, maybe, but that’s not borne out in SAT Subject Test scores. In Literature, 950 Virginians and 753 Marylanders scored 700+ in 2010. In US History it was 1,673 Virginians and only 643 Marylanders scoring 700+. Math 2 was a little closer, 1,807 Virginians and 1,660 Marylanders scoring 700+. In SAT Reasoning Test scores the pattern is similar: on CR, 3,055 Virginians and only 2,316 Marylanders scored 700+. M is closer, with 3,175 Virginians and 2,994 Marylanders scoring 700+. Still, there are more top-end Virginians in every category, yet 35% more Marylanders end up in elite private schools. </p>
<p>Why?</p>
<p>Well, the obvious answer is that more top-end Virginians attend their public flagship. Which is why the 75th percentile SAT CR+M score at UVA is 1450, while at UMD-CP the 75th percentile is 60 points lower, at 1390. And it’s why 90% of UVA students were in the top 10% of their HS class, while only 72% of UMD students are. In Virginia, a much larger percentage of top students elect to stay home and never even apply to elite private colleges. In Maryland, most top students avoid their public flagship if they can. Heck, Maryland even sent 104 freshmen to Michigan in 2010, making that school one of the most popular elite-university destinations for Marylanders, behind only Johns Hopkins (139) and—ta-da!—UVA (121) among US News top-30 schools. Virginia sent only about ¼ as many to Michigan (27) as Maryland did, and it sent less than a third as many to UMD (38) as came in the other direction. But the terms of this triangular trade clearly favored Michigan: only 2 Michiganders enrolled at UVA, and 6 enrolled at UMD-CP.</p>
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<p>Yes, of course. I was using 2010 figures throughout because those are the latest figures available from the Dept. of Education on who enrolled where, and I’ve always been taught that when comparing 2 or more sets of data it’s important to use data from the same years.</p>
<p>“Students aren’t that attached to particular institutions and intend to go to the most prestigious school that they can afford”</p>
<p>I don’t think you understand that not everyone in every part of the country sees this immense prestige gap between HYP and (say) a Michigan that you do. You tend to have this view that everyone’s tongues just hang out over the Ivies and a handful of other schools. You really don’t get that the Ivies are not some of ultimate pedestal everywhere, and that for a smart kid in Michigan, they may or may not be on the radar screen. Because in other parts of the country beyond Wall St, there’s no place a smart kid couldn’t get from Michigan.</p>
<p>Just to be clear, in those parts of the country between Battery Park and Soho, there’s also no place a smart kid can’t get from Michigan.</p>
<p>The mere fact of being admitted to Michigan does not say as much about the “quality” of a 17 year-old relative to his or her peers as being admitted to Harvard would. But in terms of what a smart, motivated student can achieve, neither university has a clear, systematic advantage over the other. (In any particular field, one or the other may be stronger, of course.) The average achievement of Harvard students is almost certainly hgiher, but that’s because (a) Harvard does not admit a broad spectrum of students, and Michigan does, and (b) Harvard’s students are far richer on average, and enter college with a lot of advantages relative to Michigan students. No one who knows anything, however, is surprised to see a high-achieving Michigan graduate, and no one is categorically unwilling to hire high-achieving Michigan graduates. Of whom there are plenty.</p>
<p>Just curious as to why Northeastern has such a low rank…in the 400s. It has a high job placement rate, is selective in its admissions, is one of the most applied to schools in the country, offers the students many exceptional opportunities, and most of the kids that go there seem happy. I am not saying that it should be in the top 50, but the 400s? I couldn’t believe the schools ranked higher.</p>
<p>Once again, thank you bclintonk, for that tutorial. I learned a lot about my state and my sons, who are real life examples of all that these last few posts are discussing.</p>
<p>Well, maybe a little, but UVA is currently about 26% OOS while UMD-CP is about 23% OOS, so that alone can’t account for the difference. Of course, it is likely that UVA’s OOS students have higher stats than UMD’s. But the point is, there are more high-stats kids in Virginia than in Maryland yet far more Marylanders are going to elite private colleges, so the excess high-stats Virginians must be going someplace, and the logical explanation is to their public flagship. Some also go to William & Mary which has entering class stats roughly comparable to UVA.</p>
<p>My own high stats Marylander passed up UMD, UVA, William and Mary, Villanova, Wake Forest, and Vanderbilt for UNC-CH. A couple of Ivys and Stanford passed on him. I don’t believe that he would have attended either of the Ivys had he been admitted. UNC was always his top choice.</p>
<p>I would agree UVA and W&M are getting a lot of the high-stat kids. I’ve discussed this with many parents and we feel our children will get a great education at UVA and W&M plus we would be paying in-state tuition – a bargain – these days! Reading the local papers, they would feature the valedictorian/salutatorian and invariably, they would be heading off to UVA, W&M or VA Tech.</p>
<p>I believe bclintonk is correct. Many high stat instate kids in Virginia(above the 1450 75th percentile) happily end up at UVa. My kid was one of them. In contrast,I have a family member in Maryland currently with a high school junior. The kid has no interest in Maryland at all. They are all over the place looking at places like Johns Hopkins, Penn, Stanford,etc. They just don’t even seem to want to consider Maryland. I’m sure there are top Maryland students who do consider Maryland though,especially if merit is possible. UVa really does not have merit aid but many families are very interested in it anyway.In Virginia, even the top students tend to be willing to consider schools like UVa, William and Mary, and Virginia Tech (for engineering).</p>
<p>Which gets back to the bigger point – “preference” for one school over another is highly weighted by the desirability of the state flagship option … which can run the gamut from “undesirable fallback for the average student” all the way to “world-class” (such as a Michigan). So therefore, why is it relevant to a student in one situation to know how an aggregate of other students chooses? </p>
<p>If (taking this to extremes), smart kids in Maryland all think Harvard >> UMD but smart kids in Michigan think Harvard = Michigan, then what’s the point of knowing preferences at a national level? If anything, it’s only really relevant at your state level. And even then, I still question the utility of how knowing what other people choose says about much of anything.</p>
<p>About UMD: (I have one kid there, and one at UNC)</p>
<p>UMD is still living a bit in the shadow of the days when, if you had a pulse and lived in Maryland you could go there. Older Marylanders remember those days, and many adults continue to think that way about it. I also think the area around UMD is a huge turn off for many parents and kids. Ugly, more crime than anyone would like, run down and old.</p>
<p>However, in the ten years we have lived here I see an evolving change in attitudes. Every year it is harder to gain admission compared to the year before, and we see a fairly large number of area kids transfer to UMD from more elite schools each year, for a variety of reasons. Money is a big reason, as is dissatisfaction with the more elite school or program within the school. I have been suprised at how many kids start somewhere higher ranked, but end up at UMD after one or two years. Do transfers show up in the statistics?</p>
<p>Those are interesting observations about UMD,eastcoastcrazy. One of my kids had a club tournament there and I actually thought the campus was nice and the shops and restaurants around there were not bad. I have heard though that there is a perception about crime in the more general area. Have you seen more top instate kids seriously considering UMD recently than in the past because of the economy?</p>
<p>Interesting observation and question. I don’t have access to stats on transfers, e.g., where they’re coming from and how their HS grades, class rank, and SAT/ACT scores compare to entering freshmen. You seem to be suggesting that the transfers in to UMD might include a lot of high-stats kids who whether for financial or educational issues have decided to bail on elite private schools and finish out their undergrad degrees at the local flagship. There could be some of that, but the attrition rates at the top privates are generally extremely low, so I don’t imagine there would be very large numbers of very high stats kids transferring in. </p>
<p>As a general matter, it’s likely to go the other way. Many schools accept as transfers large numbers of students they probably wouldn’t have admitted as freshmen. The transfers fly under the radar in the US News rankings, which look only at the stats of entering freshmen. So in the UC system, for example, where the graduating class is almost invariably much larger than the freshman class due to the regular, institutionalized infusion of large numbers of community college transfers, the reported freshman class stats that are the basis for US News rankings may not be reflective of the actual strength of the student body. In 2010, for example, UC Berkeley enrolled 4,109 new freshmen and 2,241 new transfers, so a little over 1 out of every 3 new students was a transfer. No doubt some of these were high-stats students who for financial or other reasons started out at community colleges or weaker 4-year universities, but some are probably people UC Berkeley wouldn’t have admitted on the first go-round. Though they are still quite selective in transfer admissions, with a 22.8% transfer admit rate.</p>
<p>Overall transfer numbers at UMN are pretty similar to Berkeley: 3,929 new freshmen, 1,899 new transfers, so again about 1 out of 3 newly enrolled students was a transfer, with a transfer admit rate of 43.8%, pretty similar to the admit rate for freshmen. Given the sheer numbers, it’s doubtful the transfers had significantly higher stats than the entering freshmen. </p>
<p>Not all public flagships enroll so many transfers. At UVA, for example, transfers represented only 16.3% of newly enrolled undergrads, about half the UMN/UC Berkeley level. At Michigan it was even lower, with transfers accounting for only 13.7% of newly enrolled undergrads.</p>