<br>
<blockquote> <p>Usually people say I have around a 10ish percent chance....<<</p> </blockquote>
<br>
<p>That's probably because applicants in general (most of whom have strong credentials) have around a 10ish percent chance. In most years about 90% off the applicants to Harvard are rejected. Seems to me you have as resonable a chance as anybody, but who am I to know? There is nothing more useless than asking other kids or their parents what your chances are. The only ones who can really address that question are the Harvard adcoms, and that ain't us.</p>