<p>I'm gonna bump this mostly to say that I got a 2390 SAT (790 math) and to ask if anybody could guess on my chances ED to Columbia - do you think there's 50/50 shot? (I should have great recs and an awesome essay - everybody says they do, but I am a pretty excellent writer.) Oh and what if I EA to Harvard instead, I'm guessing that's a less than 50-50 shot, but if I'm lucky maybe not way less?</p>
<p>Somebody throw some numbers, advice, I just want something - do you think I'm the average ED applicant w/ a 20% chance, or do you think I've at least got a little more?</p>
<p>In my HUMBLE opinion (I am not an adcom or anything, obviously), you are a better than average applicant for Columbia, and thus your chances are better.</p>
<p>
[quote]
As a rough approximation of your chance of not being accepted anywhere on your list looks like this (using USNWR's figures from 2003 - these will likely be worse next year!):</p>
<p>.9 x .8 x .89 x .6 x .82 x .79 = .25 ~ 25%
[/quote]
</p>
<p>someone's forgetting the basic rule of statistics... these events ARE NOT independent, if one rejects you it's likely there's a reason...!</p>
<p>my GC told me that harvard was a match for me, so id disagree that 25% admissions rate means its not a match. some people apply because, idk, lottery chance.</p>
<p>as for your chances, the numerous amounts of leadership may be discounted by the small size of your school. if ur class size was 200, youd prolly get into all of them, granted ur apps and interviews go well, but with just 36 how did previous classes do at the elites?</p>
<p>cujoe -
unless the schools are in cahoots (always possible) they are independant, at least for approximation's sake - and that is all this is. What I am not doing is adjusting the probabilities to the individual student (and his or her application). In that case, probability of rejection will be higher for a BWRK, unhooked kid looking for financial aid - relative to that of a legacy recruited althlete that won a beauty contest (all other things being equal). Likewise, a student will all stats in the upper quarter will have a better chance - unless he or she is from a region that heavily applies to a school that wants geographical diversity.</p>
<p>I'm also not adjusting the probabilities to match - safety - reach. If you think your essays and rec's are wonderful - and they are really not - your assessments are all off, especially at the random schools. </p>
<p>Ali G's list is really pretty reasonable, and will likely yield multiple acceptances. But it could be a lot safer without that much extra time or expense. And it the safety is also a financial safety, that end of things is also covered.</p>
<p>According to "What It Really Takes to Get Into the Ivy League & Other Highly Selective Colleges" by Chuck Hughes: For the class of 2003 throughout the country, 673 of all students who took the SAT I scores 1600, and approximately two-thirds of them applied to Harvard. Of these applicants, fewer than 200 were offered admission.</p>
<p>For every applicant accepted at the extremely selective schools, there are four or five applicants who are exact duplicates but who are not accepted. It is a crap shoot to a large extent.</p>
<p>dufus3709 -
if anonymous is in a Harvard feeder school, and his GC says he's a match, he probably is. But, stuff happens, and a match is not the same thing as an admit. If the school sends poor batch to Harvard one year, prospects may not be quite so rosy next, and more of the crapshoot that it is for most people. With more and more people are applying to the elites, it pays to hedge your best.</p>