“Or financial rejection (admission, but net price after financial aid and scholarships is too high to be affordable). Unless those seven legacy relatives are willing to put their money where their mouths are if they really want the OP to attend…”
I would agree-in our case, the kids know we have X amount of dollars saved for each of them. It’s a finite number; and we don’t know how much schools are going to give them, so an acceptance without good merit aid is pretty much the equivalent of “we like you, but not that much”, so in this case it would be the kid rejecting them because the school is “just not that into them”.
That legacy does put pressure on the OP to select that college over other colleges if they do get accepted, however, I do not envy them that position.
I agree with the notion of casting a wide net. Our DS had a fairly similar situation…very competitive private high school with no grade inflation. Son had only a 3.7, made cum laude, but was not in top 10% of class (which sent many students to top flight/Ivy schools). DS had a high SAT (relative to his GPA) and, in the end, was offered significant merit money (we were full pay) to some nice private schools…Case Western, Tulane, Centre. So you should not necessarily limit your consideration just to state/public options (which certainly can be great of course).
I wouldn’t give up on ED just because you’re looking for financial aid. If the Net Price Calculator shows a number that’s okay for you, applying ED is a reasonable option.
Even if your S’s school doesn’t rank, odds are there is some information given out–usually though not always in the school profile–which will allow colleges to have some sense of where your S stands in his class. In fact, nearby colleges probably know where his GPA puts him in the class better than you do at this point. Ask your school for a copy of its profile. Even from Naviance you can get some sense of where he stands vs. his classmates.
Not all 3.5s are created equal. Is there an upward trend? Some colleges don’t count 9th grade. Almost all count it less heavily than later years. Does he get about the same grades in all subjects or are there areas of weakness and strength? This too can matter. A student who has poor grades in his English classes is less likely to be admitted to most colleges than one whose poor grades are in foreign language.
Who is giving him the advice not to apply? Some colleges have alumni relations officers in the admissions department. If one of them is telling him not to apply, don’t. But if it’s your high school GC, feel free to ignore the advice.
We don’t know what school OP’s son is attending. It sounds like a private school with a solid reputation locally or in the state (?). If it’s known for its rigor and high quality graduates outside the state, or the college counseling of the school has built the connections with some national colleges with great merit aid programs, then certainly he should apply to those colleges to maximize his chance of a getting a merit-based scholarship. OP should make their goal clear to the college counselor and seek their advice on how to best achieve the goal.
I know that the OP’s son had special circumstances (auditory processing weakness) that made the choice for the attending school right for him, but this brings up an interesting point about choice of schools. Being in education I often hear, “we want to be in ______ district because their schools are rated so high”. I often tell parents “their schools are rated so high because the school district’s parents have a high wealth ratio, not because the school is doing anything significantly different than most schools in the area”. I use my D as an example of how seeking “the best” school can backfire. We live in a small village, our school district is rural, with a third of our students on free or reduced lunch. My D had very good academic “stats”, although they were at around the 25th percentile for her #1 college choice. I think a big reason she was accepted was the excellence & leadership she demonstrated through her ECs (captain of varsity sport, class president, prominant roles in school musicals, chosen for regional chorus & dance performances, etc.). If attending one of “the best” schools in the suburbs, it is doubtful that she would have had these. In addition, one of her college essays was about how many would view growing up in a small town to be a curse, but how growing up with economic diversity for her was a blessing, especially based on her intended social science major. In addition, she may have been the only senior in our county applying to the specific college within the University that year, whereas the county with the “good schools” likely had many applicants.