<p>One last statement here… Then I really have to do something more useful with my life</p>
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<p>Unfortunately, no. The only way that I could assume we keep the 22% is if I assume that every student who applies to these programs has a 3.6 or higher. However, we know that 32177 applications were sent to these five programs alone and had a 22% acceptance rate. This, my friend, is a very large number – our top students only have 11,000 applications going to these schools. This means the other 21000 applications have to come from students with lower GPAs. My argument is that anything above 3.6 doesn’t matter, not that anything below 3.6 doesn’t matter. Thus we have to assume that the average acceptance rate of 22% is found with the weighted average of the 11,000 applications – which I assumed was 33% and the 21000 which is going to be some functional relationship but just for the sake of simplicity we’ll say it’s 16.5%. </p>
<p>(21000/32177)<em>(16.5)+(11000/32177)</em>(33)= ~22%</p>
<p>This is realistic because we are talking about 3 time the number of applications, meaning, from the data on pg 10 this students with GPAs well under the known average of 3.6 would be applying. And, I’ve never said that this won’t negatively affect acceptance rates, it will, drastically.</p>
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<p>I looked at this data, and tell me if I’m wrong here, but isn’t this all grad students? Not just domestic students?</p>
<p>From US News, I come up with 358 domestic students. This is 47.8% international out of the 686 first year enrollments in Masters and Doctorate at Cornell.</p>
<p>From US News, I come up with 298 domestic students. This is 48% international out of 574 first year enrollments at UIUC Masters and Doctorate.</p>
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<p>Really? So, we had 809 students that were never accounted for in my analysis. Plus, the 25%*(3700) = 925. 809+925 is 1739 students, as it turns out the 25% was low to start with, but your international student thought shed light on my mistake which ended up leaving roughly 50% applying to other top programs.</p>
<p>So, we now have</p>
<p>MIT, Berkeley, CalT, Stanford, GT, UIUC, and Cornell. What’s an exhaustive list?</p>
<p>Add Harvard - - > 49 domestics
Princeton –> 53 domestics
John/s Hopkins - - > 139 domestics
Yale - - > 24 domestics
Northwestern - - > 200 domestics
CMU - - > 229 domestics
Texas - - > 246 domestics
Michigan - -> 352 domestics
Columbia - - > 184 domestics</p>
<p>Total, we now have 1964 going to MIT, Berkeley, CalT, Stanford, and GT ; and 2132 going to UIUC, Cornell, Michigan, Princeton, Yale, John’s Hopkins, Northwestern, CMU, Texas, Columbia and Harvard… This is a total of 4096, I’m short about 400 students that can be borrowed easily from the 3.6 students. </p>
<p>In fact, why don’t we just leave some room to breathe here. Let’s just throw in all the 3.6 students in the country. This accounts for 15% of the nation’s engineering graduates (73000). So, now I’m working with 10,950 students, of which 55% apply to grad school, leaving 6020. A weighted average of all students with 3.6+ GPAs is .283(3.6)+.256(3.7)+.212(3.8)+.177(3.9)+.07(4) = 3.74</p>
<p>6020 – 4096 = 1924 left over</p>
<p>So, we now have 1924 top students able to go to schools other than MIT, Berkeley, CalT, Stanford, GT, UIUC, Cornell, Michigan, Princeton, Yale, John’s Hopkins, Columbia, Northwestern, CMU, Texas, and Harvard…</p>
<p>I mean think about it, how many other top programs are there? Even if we say another five-ten that have specialty areas – that means a much lower percentage of these top students will apply there in the first place. A very small number of top students will end up at their state schools, most of them will easily get funded at these top programs so it would have to be family or other personal reasons that most likely dictate these circumstances – not finances. </p>
<p>We have GPA data for GT=3.6, Berkeley=3.6, Cornell=3.5, Mich=3.5, John’s Hopkins=3.5, CMU=3.5, Texas, 3.5, Northwestern = 3.5, and Columbia = 3.5.</p>
<p>We have 1924 of these top students that can attend other specialty or solid programs, that’s 32% of all top students that apply to grad school in the first place! </p>
<p>Think about this for a minute, there’s 73,000 domestic engineer graduates/year, of which we assume 55% will apply to grad school – this is 40150. Now, we found (in paragraph 1) that approx. 16000 domestic applications went to MIT, GT, CalT, Stanford, and Berkeley alone. We know there is a 1:1 ratio of domestic students to applications per school, if we use the same assumption 3/4 of the applications going to these top schools, this means there were 4000 students behind those 16,000 applications. That’s 10% of all the domestic students who apply to grad schools, applying at the top five programs alone! Add in the rest of all the schools just found (all from US News data), and there are ~34,000 domestic applications going out to them – that’s 8500 actual students with our ratio. A full 21% of all domestic students applying to grad programs. </p>
<p>Now there are probably 100-300 grad programs in the country, and we’ve found that these schools take the lion’s share of applications, proportionally speaking. This makes sense. We’ve also found that there’s enough top students left over to sprinkle about 3 top students per each one of these other few hundred programs. Which makes sense, because there are thousands of 3.5, 3.4, 3.3, and 3.2 students that we can automatically assume are spread around them, with only a few 3.6+. Keep in mind the overwhelming majority of these few hundred other schools are nearly no-name programs. Schools like Purdue, TAMU, VTECH, etc, will catch quite a few of the left over top students and most of the 3.5s as well. Which also makes sense.</p>
<p>So, my conclusion is that MIT, Berkeley, CalT, Stanford, GT, UIUC, Cornell, Michigan, Princeton, Yale, John’s Hopkins, Columbia, Northwestern, CMU, Texas, and Harvard could all have avg GPA enrollment of 3.74+ if they wated to, but we know that GT=3.6, Berkeley=3.6, Cornell=3.5, Mich=3.5, John’s Hopkins=3.5, CMU=3.5, Texas, 3.5, Northwestern = 3.5, and Columbia = 3.5… These schools don’t, in fact, other than Berkeley and GT, they don’t even come close. There’s ~30% of our 3.74 avg GPA top students applying to programs other than these, and thousands more 3.5 GPA students that we never even used in our calculations. This leaves a wide margin of error for all of the assumptions.</p>
Well ya win some and lose some in this life huh… </p>