Grades dropped for a year because of school transfer?

I’m from a military family and moved from a rural Montana school in freshman year, an urban VA school in sophomore year and a tough VA college prep academy in junior to senior year. My normal average is 3.7-3.8, but the first year I went to the college prep private school, it dipped to about a 3.1.
This was only one year and my first quarter senior grades are back up to the 3.7-3.8 (normal for BMC). I explained this discrepancy on my common app, but how badly will it affect my chances? I know they will probably understand, what with the constant moving, but how negatively will it reflect on me?
The rest of my application is tight, and I have lots of demonstrated interest.

This is very subjective to the particular schools that you applied to. Have you spoken with any of the admission counselors from those schools? Some schools will look for an upward trend in grades and rigor and will consider the multiple moves. You say that you have demonstrated interest and the rest of the application is solid. Do you know if any counselor letters mentioned the moves and how well you adjusted? Schools will also recalculate your GPA and most likely add weight to AP/IB or DE courses. What is your cumulative GPA, (did your current school recalculate or are there 3 transcripts being sent in your application), and where does it fall within the “accepted student profile” of the schools that you applied to? Best of luck, it is very tough to move so frequently.

I have spoken with the admission counselors, but not about this. I’m debating whether I should speak to them about this, I don’t want to come off as desperate or making excuses. I am not allowed to see or view my recommendations. I don’t know my cumulative GPA but I imagine it’s lower after junior year.