Definitely very interesting to parse through. I think some of the stats are a bit off due to cds definitions. So many students took fall gaps that the retention rate looks pretty abysmal compared to the reality. It also looks like for test score ranges they only include those who started in the fall, and if I remember correctly about 40 (mostly international, usually higher scoring) students waited until the spring.
I don’t think that ‘25 will necessarily be an outlier in terms of size. ‘24 is already about 400, and will near 430 when all the ‘23 → ‘24 students are taken into account.
Anyways, let’s say for sake of argument they are going for a class size of 480 (which seems like the higher end compared to the usual 450 goal, but plausible). That would be about 430 open slots. Although people applied to more schools, given the 23% yield during the beginning of the pandemic and the new no loans financial aid policy it’s difficult to imagine a lower yield than that, so imagining a .23 to .25 projected yield they’d probably accept in the range of 17-1800ish students.
But there are so many moving parts it’s really impossible to say with any of this!
I want to say that I’ve heard by April 1st, so I would expect any week now. A lot of my other schools that are similar to Grinnell (i.e. Emory, WashU, etc.) have said this exact same date.
It seems people’s guesses would imply sometime around tomorrow afternoon, but that can’t be confirmed. We’ll probably just have to wait until then and see.
