<p>Ugh. People keep saying that applications will be going down, and there’s absolutely nothing to support that. There is a very small 6-7 year trough in the number of high school graduates, that at its low point is about 3% below the peak a couple of years ago. It is likely to be completely offset by international applications and by a steady increase in the percentage of high school graduates who go to college.</p>
<p>In any event, that’s macro across American society. But whereas fourth-tier colleges in New England – where there are lots of colleges and decreasing population – may have a problem, Harvard’s year-to-year applications increase has dwarfed any underlying changes in population. Whatever is happening at the population level, or with international applications, Harvard and its ilk are attracting more and more applications, because they are both the best academic option and the best financial option for huge numbers of students, and way more people are aware of their prestige and reputation than was true a generation ago.</p>